Puerto Rico’s governor’s race is being flipped by a third party for the first time in 70 years

Voters in Puerto Rico will elect a new governor next week, ending an unprecedented race in which a new coalition party has emerged with a strong chance of triumphing over the two long-standing traditional parties.

For the past seven decades, Puerto Rico has been governed by pro-statehood The New Progressive Partycurrently in office held by Governor Pedro Pierluisi, or by People’s Democratic Partywhich supports the current territorial status of the island. And in every election during this period, the frontrunners were candidates from these two parties.

This year, however, the candidate from Puerto Rican Independence Partya minority party advocating for the island’s independence from the US, made a breakthrough.

Independence Party candidate Juan Dalmau has gained enough momentum to have a fighting chance of defeating pro-state incumbent Jenniffer Gonzalez and relegating Popular Democratic Party candidate Jesús Manuel Ortiz to third place .

But Dalmau’s growing support isn’t necessarily related to more Puerto Ricans supporting independence. Instead, he became the face of the “Alianza”, a new coalition between the Independence Party and Citizens’ Victory Movement — a party founded in 2019 by several people who had unsuccessful bids as separate, independent candidates in 2016.

After the 2020 election, the two smaller parties realized that if they came together under a “strategic alliance” they could gain enough support to potentially defeat the incumbent, said Carlos Vargas-Ramos, a political scientist at the Council. Center for Puerto Rican Studies at Hunter College in New York.

Under “Alianza” (Alliance)the coalition billed itself as a movement opposing the pro-state party and the Democratic People’s Party, promising to prioritize good governance on the issue of Puerto Rico’s status, serving as an attractive alternative to voters who feel disenchanted with both traditional parties.

Frustration and hopelessness in the Puerto Rican electorate began to become apparent in 2016, when a record low turnout of 55% was reported, an unusual milestone for an island known for high voter turnout of 73% to 89%. Voter turnout remained unchanged in the 2020 election.

The low voter turnout was preceded by a series of crises that eroded people’s confidence trust in Puerto Rican government institutions.

The islanders are grappling with an economic crisis that reached a boiling point in 2015, when Puerto Rico racked up about $72 billion in public debt — but, unlike other U.S. jurisdictions, was unable to legally file for bankruptcy. As a result, Congress passed the PROMESA Act in 2016 to create a federally appointed fiscal oversight board to allow Puerto Rico to restructure its debt.

As the board managed the largest public debt restructuring in US historyimplemented harsh austerity measures which it led to layoffs of public workers and cutbacks to the health and education budgets. In addition, Puerto Rico has been hit by devastating natural disasters that include Hurricane María in 2017 and a series of earthquakes in 2020 and the pandemic.

In 2019, Puerto Ricans took to the streets to participate its largest protest in recent history to drive away then-Governor Ricardo Rosselló following a political scandal involving him and a dozen members of his Cabinet.

“Something different” versus “continuation”

For a generation of young Puerto Ricans like Cristina Rodríguez, 31, who have lived through these crises and blame the parties in power, “Alianza” is an option to bring much-needed change.

Alianza doesn’t just have the youth to change things, but I think they remember from their own experience how previous governments have failed us throughout our growth and everything my generation had to endure growing up.” Rodriguez said. “I’m very hopeful that, for the first time, I’m seeing something different happen.”

But Alianza still faces a big challenge with voters who have historically seen issues of good governance as intrinsically tied to Puerto Rico’s current territorial status or don’t want to disrupt the traditional party system.

Iraida Quiñones, an intelligent and energetic 89-year-old who has long been a loyal supporter of the pro-territorial People’s Democratic Party, will vote for her party’s candidate, Ortiz, on Election Day “even if it’s the last thing i do .”

Quiñones, like many Alianza supporters, is unhappy with the last three governors, all from the pro-state party. But she believes voting for another traditional party is her best bet to topple the incumbent party.

Avid state supporter and former island housing secretary Miguel Hernández, 51, said he had already cast a postal vote for González to ensure “the continuation of the current government”.

Fears of independence

Among the voters Alianza aims to attract, there is still a significant number who seem unable to put aside Dalmau’s support for independence, despite the fact that he is running a campaign that prioritizeshonest government“and not seeking independence if elected.

The vast majority of Puerto Ricans favor statehood or its current territorial relationship with the U.S. Historically, the island’s chances of significantly exploring independence as an option have been stymied by the U.S., which considered Puerto Rico an important military asset during the two world wars and the Cold War, especially after neighboring Cuba became communist under Castro. Puerto Rico’s history includes locals laws to a government-approved surveillance program known as “las carpetas” to persecute supporters of independence and even crimes.

Dalmau’s main opponent, the pro-state candidate González, has been leading in the polls and has used this complicated history to her advantage – creating political attacks by misrepresenting Dalmau’s platform of promoting social democracy to claim that he wants communism for Puerto Rico .

Jorge Schmidt Nieto, a political science professor at the University of Puerto Rico in Mayagüez, said the attacks have proven effective among voters whose Cold War-era fears remain largely intact.

Complicating matters for Alianza is how Puerto Rico’s 2020 electoral law restructured the electoral process in a way that, in practice, gave the ruling party “an institutional advantage,” Schmidt Nieto said.

One of these advantages is to allow parties and candidates to offer ballots to early voters. Because the state party is the largest, they have the infrastructure to take advantage of this in a significant way and have virtually secured about 200,000 votes for González, Schmidt Nieto said.

In this context, a series of accusations of possible voter fraud appeared, with a report from the Puerto Rico Center for Investigative Journalism finding that at least 5,872 deceased people appeared as voting in the 2020 and 2016 elections.

The Justice Department has since then appointed a District Election Officer to supervise voting rights violations in Puerto Rico during its election day program.

Who’s voting – and its potential impact

González is currently the island’s resident commissioner, who is Puerto Rico’s non-voting representative in Congress. Unlike Governor Pierluisi, who supports Vice President Kamala Harris, González supports former President Donald Trump. Ortiz, the GOP candidate, is endorsing Harris.

All gubernatorial candidates, including González, have spoken out against comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s racist jokes calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” Dalmau and Ortiz also criticize González for supporting Trump.

With the polls putting González ahead of Dalmau about 2 TO 8 percentage points, Charles Venator-Santiagodirector of the Puerto Rican Studies Initiative at the University of Connecticut, said he “wouldn’t be surprised if Dalmau pulls off a win.”

According to Venator-Santiago, if enough young people turn out to vote and a fourth emerging party calls The dignity of the projectthat favors a Christian democracy, get enough supporters of the state to vote for their gubernatorial candidate, Javier Jiménez, Puerto Rico could make history by electing a governor from a party that has never been in office before.

“The gap isn’t that big. Now the question is, who is going to vote or not to vote around the island?” Venator-Santiago said.

Election Day in Puerto Rico is November 5th.