Fantasy Football Week 9 Start Sit Decisions: Patrick Mahomes finally breaks out

Williams last attempted more than 29 passes in Week 3 and has two games for more than 226 yards this year. As slight favorites over the Cardinals, expect the Bears to limit their reps again.

Stand: Baker Mayfield, Bucs

There are worse options than Mayfield this week. He is almost certain to have volume on his side as a big upset for the Chiefs. But that’s not enough to keep him in the QB1 ranks without Chris Godwin or Mike Evans on the field. Mayfield had three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 9.1 YPA on deep throws in Week 8. He completed 1 of 6 deep throws in his first game without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Two of his attempts were intercepted and he averaged 4.2 yards per throw. Mayfield is currently the QB2, but he shouldn’t be treated as anything close to that in Week 9.

Running back

Start: Brian Robinson, skippers

Robinson posted a 64 percent carry rating in Week 8. That was his highest mark since suffering a knee injury in Week 5. The same goes for his 46 percent carry rating. He ran 16 times for 65 yards. Robinson and the Chiefs are four-point favorites over the Giants this week. Despite missing one game and part of another, Robinson is sixth in the league in red zone attempts.

Start: Anyone starts for the Titans

The Titans are favored by 3.5 points over the Patriots this week. As of today, it’s the last time they’ll be favored in a game this year. That’s not great for the Titans’ running backs going forward, but it’s phenomenal for their outlook for Week 9. They’re getting a New England defense ranked 25th in the EPA per rush attempt allowed. The Pats have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs. Tony Pollard has yet to practice and Tyjae Spears was demoted to DNP on Thursday. Julius Chestnut would be the next man up if both spats are sidelined this week. I’ll update this section with a projected starter once Tennessee releases the final injury report, but this is a great spot regardless of who starts.

Stand: Javonte Williams, Broncos

Williams has been terrible in most efficiency metrics this year. He ranks outside the top 50 running backs in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per carry. Only two running backs lost more yards than their total expectations, according to Next Gen Stats. He’s skated with a lot of volume in Denver’s wins, but he’s a horrible bet for fantasy points in losses.

That will be a problem this week as the Broncos are underdogs by 8.5 points

Stand: Nick Chubb, Browns

Chubb has yet to exhibit his otherworldly efficiency through two games. He is averaging 2.6 yards after contact per attempt and is slightly below his yardage expectations. Chubb’s career average in YAC per carry is 3.9. The Browns are slight underdogs this week and face a Chargers defense that has given up the second fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Wide receiver

Start: Ladd McConkey, Chargers

McConkey ranks 15th in targets per route (min. 150 routes) and 26th in target share per year. Those numbers were only good for 11.2 fantasy points per game before LA’s Week 5 bye. They were among the toughest teams in the NFL, stifling any potential fantasy production from pass-catchers. Since then, the Chargers have increased their pass rate to an expected +3%.

The increased passing volume has boosted McConkey’s fantasy production to 15.3 points per game over the last three weeks. He exploded for 111 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8. With Jim Harbaugh opening the offense, McConkey is firmly in the WR2 ranks.

Start: Cedric Tillman, Browns

All three Browns wide receivers are in the FLEX conversation this week, but Tillman has run away with the No. 1 role in two games without Amari Cooper. Over the past two weeks, Tillman has a 24% target share and a 35% share in the air yards. He is the WR2 in expected fantasy points during that span.

Site: Roma Odunze, Urși

Odunze’s splits with and without Keenan Allen remain grim.

The rookie quietly increased his target rate to 30 percent in Week 8, but caught just three passes for 41 yards. This is actually the highest receiving total in games with Allen active. Odunze was used primarily as a deep threat last week, posting a 17.7 aDOT. The Cardinals tied for 10th fewest receptions on throws over 15 yards.

Stand: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs

Hopkins only ran a route on 33 percent of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks in Week 8. That number will obviously increase in the coming weeks, but we need to see that before we throw him into our fantasy lineups. The Chiefs also failed to develop him into the “Rashee Rice role.” He ran 86 percent of outside routes and had an average target depth of 15 yards. Rice was used in the slot on nearly half of his routes and had an aDOT of 5.2.