Juan Soto’s reprieve, Astros Bregman’s downside, Counsell’s familiar move

Now that the champagne is done and the parade is on, it’s time to start shifting our focus from the postseason to the Hot Stove season. And what a winter it promises to be, with Juan Soto highlighting a star-studded free agent class and plenty of teams with money to burn. Here’s a quick spin around the rumor mill with the latest on Soto’s potential contract structure, Houston Astroswatching Alex Bregman and Craig Counsell put one over Brewers of Milwaukee one more time.

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Where will Juan Soto sign is the biggest question of this offseason, with Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and more looking to secure the services of the outfielder. But what might a potential Soto contract look like?

Recent reports suggest that Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, now have their sights set on at least matching the $700 million awarded to Shohei Ohtani last winter. Of course, that deal was made possible by a whopping $680 million in deferred money, drastically reducing the actual value of the contract. Boras is unlikely to agree to such a team-friendly structure, but if he wants to bring his client into the Ohtani stratosphere, he’ll have to compromise at least somewhat: a recent Spotrac estimate suggests Soto can match the earnings of Ohtani’s career with a 12-year, $660 million deal, of which about $215 million would be deferred.

It’s clear at this point that the initial estimates of $500-600 million made earlier this season have been far exceeded. But Ohtani’s deal was something of a black swan event, and something between $600 million and $700 million seems like the best bet right now.

The Houston Astros are facing something of a catch-22 this offseason. The team’s clearest path to contention in 2025 is to bring back pending free agent Alex Bregman, especially given the lack of other third base options on the market this winter. But the only way Bregman re-signs is if he feels Houston will contend next year and beyond.

“That’s something I want to do for my whole career is win,” Bregman said The Athletic in September. “The thing I value most is winning.”

Can the Astros successfully convince Bregman that Houston is the place to make it happen? This is a crossroads offseason with both Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez entering their final seasons of team control. The team still hopes to sign one or both to a long-term deal, but owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to hand out such contracts in the past. And while dealing Tucker and/or Valdez would be a boon for what is generally considered among the worst farm systems in baseball, it will inevitably mean a short-term step back that Bregman almost certainly doesn’t want to take. do it

After playing for the Chicago Cubs last October, Craig Counsell found himself a bit behind the 8 ball, unable to assemble his ideal coaching staff based on how late in the cycle he already was. This offseason represents an opportunity to reset, so perhaps it’s no surprise that Counsell is going back to the source: the former Brewers skipper a convinced Milwaukee first base coach Quintin Berry will come to the North Side to serve as the third base coach.

Berry also served as the Brewers’ base running coach, contributing to the high-flying, aggressive style that characterized Milwaukee the past two years. He will look to have a similar effect on what was a relatively laborious Cubs team last season. It also represents another shot in the growing cold war between these two franchises as Counsell tries to prove he was justified in flipping Milwaukee for an NL Central rival.