Opinion | Chagos Agreement: A win for India, but China’s influence remains a threat

Last update:24 Oct 2024, 18:10 IST

Beijing’s ongoing investments in Indian Ocean ports such as Chittagong are a constant reminder of China’s ambition to expand its influence in the region.

Fuel tanks on the edge of a military airstrip on Diego Garcia, the largest island in the Chagos archipelago. (Image: REUTERS)

China’s maritime policies and its growing influence in the South Asian region pose increasingly serious challenges to India’s regional interests. China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy, under which it has made investments in ports like Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), is enveloping India. The Chittagong port, built with China’s help, has the potential to accommodate submarines and warships. Bangladesh had previously maintained that there was no military purpose behind China’s funding of the Chittagong port, but the possibility of it becoming part of China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy has been strengthened after the expulsion of Sheikh Hasina. The new regime in Bangladesh appears to be hostile towards India.

The visit of the Chinese naval fleet to Chittagong port on October 12, for the first time in four years, is indicative of India’s growing maritime challenges in the Bay of Bengal. On the occasion of the naval fleet’s visit, the Chinese Embassy in Bangladesh issued a statement saying that “China is eager to work closely with Bangladesh to consolidate our traditional friendship, deepen friendly exchanges and cooperation mutually beneficial in various areas and promote a high level of quality cooperation of the Belt and Road”.

China’s assertiveness in our maritime neighborhood and in the wider Indian Ocean region underlines the importance of the behind-the-scenes role that India played in the Chagos archipelago deal, to which the UK and Mauritius arrived after years of difficult negotiations. India described the UK-Mauritius agreement as “important” and said the resolution of the “long-standing Chagos dispute” is a welcome development that completes the decolonization of Mauritius. Undoubtedly, the UK-Mauritius agreement on the transfer of sovereignty of the Chagos archipelago earlier this month is of great importance to India’s maritime interests.

On 3 October 2024, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Mauritian Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth made a joint statement announcing that the UK would hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. In return, Mauritius would grant the United Kingdom an initial 99-year lease for the island of Diego Garcia. India and the US were mentioned in the UK-Mauritius joint statement: “In reaching today’s political agreement, we have enjoyed the full support and assistance of our close partners, the United States of America and the Republic of India”.

The Chagos Archipelago consists of approximately 58 small, flat islands located in the central Indian Ocean. Historically, the archipelago was considered a dependency of Mauritius, which was originally a French colony. In 1814, France ceded Mauritius to the United Kingdom under the Treaty of Paris, bringing it under British control. In 1965, the United Kingdom established the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), which incorporated the Chagos Archipelago. Although Mauritius became independent from British rule in 1968, the Chagos Islands were separated from Mauritius, and the United Kingdom paid three million pounds for this detachment.

Sovereignty over the Chagos Islands remained a matter of dispute between the United Kingdom and Mauritius. Britain faced decades of pressure to return them to Mauritius. In February 2019, the International Court of Justice declared British control of the Chagos Islands illegal. Three months later, the United Nations overwhelmingly supported a resolution demanding that Britain relinquish control of the islands.

The UK, however, had resisted international pressure because, together with the US, it had established a military base on Diego García Island in the 1970s. Diego Garcia is the largest island of the Chagos archipelago and is part of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). Located just south of the equator in the central Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia is 1,796 km southwest of India. Its strategic location provides access to East Africa, West Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia.

India had some concerns regarding Diego Garcia due to China’s growing expansionism in our maritime neighborhood and the wider Indian Ocean region. What if Diego Garcia’s American base were to be dismantled and, over time, a Chinese base emerged? This was precisely what China wanted, and it would not have been favorable to India. Following the UK-Mauritius agreement on the Chagos Archipelago, Diego Garcia now belongs to Mauritius, but will be leased to the UK and used as a military base by the US. Its strategic location in the Indian Ocean could help curb Chinese expansionism.

US President Biden also welcomed the agreement, saying it was a “clear demonstration that through diplomacy and partnership, countries can overcome long-standing historical challenges to achieve peaceful and mutually beneficial outcomes beneficial”. China’s interest in establishing military bases in the Indian Ocean region has been a major concern for the US. These bases can be used, when necessary, for offensive or defensive maneuvers, or simply as listening posts.

US concerns about China’s maritime threats have risen visibly after China conducted military exercises with ships and aircraft near Taiwan, claiming it was in retaliation for the country’s “dangerously separatist remarks”. President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te.

Taiwan’s president declared in his Taiwan National Day speech on October 10 that China has no right to represent Taiwan and declared his commitment to “resist annexation or invasion”. In response, two days later, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched the ‘Joint Sword Operation 24B’ military exercise. China deployed an aircraft carrier, ships and about 150 warplanes around Taiwan, sealing off key ports in the Taiwan Strait during the exercise.

China’s military exercises immediately raised tensions in the wider Indian Ocean region. The US expressed concern and launched its own war games in the South China Sea, a region that has been a constant source of disputes between China and several other littoral states. More than a thousand US and Filipino soldiers conducted joint exercises in the northern and western Philippines, focusing on the defense of the northern coast of Luzon, the main island of the Philippines, which is about 800 kilometers from Taiwan. Australian, British, Japanese and South Korean forces also participated in these naval exercises.

Colonel Stuart Glenn, a spokesman for the US Marines, said the exercises were aimed at helping the US and its allies respond to “any crisis or contingency”. The Philippines stressed that these military exercises had been planned for a long time and had “nothing to do with what is happening in the region”, a clear reference to the recent tensions in Taiwan. However, the timing of the exercise was not lost on anyone, especially China, which has long sought to expand its presence in disputed areas of the South China Sea, regardless of the 2016 ruling from an international court that its claim to most of the waterway has no legal standing. base

China’s foreign ministry warned that the Philippines should be “sober enough to realize” that bringing in outside countries to show their strength in the South China Sea and provoke confrontation will only exacerbate tensions and will undermine regional stability.

In conclusion, tensions are likely to persist in the Indian Ocean region due to China’s expansionist activities. There is ongoing concern that Mauritius may offer China one of the other Chagos Islands in exchange for debt relief. Currently, the other islands of the Chagos archipelago are quite small and are considered unsuitable for military bases. However, China has demonstrated its ability to transform small uninhabited reefs in the South China Sea into naval bases and could do the same in the Chagos Islands. Chinese expansionism in the Indian Ocean region could evolve into newer and more challenging forms, posing a growing threat to India’s maritime interests.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and was previously Consul General in New York. The opinions expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of News18.