Russian Army Will ‘Transform’ Due To Ukraine War: Should NATO Be Worried?

The future composition and capabilities of the Russian military following the Ukraine conflict has become a central point of strategic discussion among NATO member states. This critical question supports alliance decisions on force posture and long-term defense planning. In a recent interview, General Christopher Cavoli, the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, made a startling claim: “The Russian military will emerge from the war in Ukraine a stronger force than before the war.”

Earlier this year, General Charles Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made a startling claim to reporters: Russia has “aggressively rebuilt its military strength, using its numerical advantage to wear down Ukraine.” While this claim may initially seem far-fetched, given the substantial losses of personnel and equipment suffered by the Russian military, it deserves further examination to unpack its implications for NATO.

Several factors contribute to the potential resurgence of Russia as a formidable threat to the alliance, perhaps even more so than before the war. These include Russia’s accumulated experiences in modern combat, its persistent manpower advantage, deep resentments toward the West and unique threat perceptions, efforts to integrate returning soldiers into leadership positions within the government, and the ‘ongoing indoctrination through patriotic national youth organizations.

Staff for Russia

In a major military expansion, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree in September 2024 to increase the Russian armed forces to 1.5 million personnel, up from 1.013 million before the invasion of Ukraine. By the end of the year, that number could rise to 2.4 million, including reservists and conscripts. The Kremlin’s commitment to this expansion is further evidenced by its substantial financial investment: the Russian government has earmarked a staggering ninety billion rubles, roughly $944.9 million, for recruitment incentives.

This budget allocation could attract between 225,000 and 461,500 hires, depending on the bonus amounts offered. While the long-term success of these recruiting efforts remains to be seen, Russia’s financial commitment indicates its intention to maintain a strong military expansion even after the war’s conclusion. This strategic move suggests a long-term vision for sustained military growth and readiness in the postwar era.

In addition, the Russian military has restructured its military, even while at war with Ukraine, to deal with new threats posed by NATO’s expansion into Finland and Sweden. For example, in response to the expansion, the Russian military has restructured the design of its military district (MD) and deactivated the Western Military Districts and the Northern Fleet in the Moscow and Leningrad MD.

Russia plans to create new artillery divisions and heavy artillery brigades, expand naval infantry and airborne forces and build new army corps, divisions and combined arms armies against Finland such as the 14th Army Corps and the 44th Army Corps.

Lessons learned from the war in Ukraine

Contrary to popular belief among Western observers, the Russian military is a thinking, learning and adapting force. Russia has learned from its mistakes since the beginning of the war and adjusted its doctrine and tactics to fight on the modern battlefield. Improvements in the Reconnaissance-Strike and Reconnaissance-Fire complex have aided Russian targeting in line of contact and depth.

Russia has also transitioned from large battalion tactical groups to smaller assault detachments and, albeit slowly, increased production and employment of drones and stray munitions. These adaptations to modern conditions will give Russia experience in modern warfare, an experience that no one in the West has.

conclusion

As NATO contemplates the conclusion of this conflict, several critical lessons emerge. The Russian military will undoubtedly be transformed by battle-hardened veterans returning from Ukraine. These soldiers, trained by war and influenced by Kremlin-sponsored narratives, may harbor deep-seated resentment and misplaced blame for their wartime experiences.

The Kremlin’s efforts to quickly integrate these individuals into the Russian political apparatus, along with increased investments in military personnel, indicate a persistent and growing threat to regional stability.

NATO, in response, must remain vigilant and proactive. The alliance’s continued investment in its military capabilities is not only advisable but imperative. The Russian presence on NATO’s eastern flank is likely to remain a major security concern for the foreseeable future, requiring a robust and adaptable defense strategy. As geopolitical landscapes change, the lessons of this conflict will play a crucial role in shaping NATO’s approach to deterrence and collective defense in the coming decades.

About the author

Jorge L. Rivero is a retired Navy Petty Officer. He is a senior information operations planner and previously served as a specialist in the Russian external area. Jorge holds a master’s degree from the Bundeswehr University in Munich and a master’s degree from George Washington University. He is also a fellow of the MIT XXI Seminar. His work focuses on Russian intelligence operations, the military and strategic weapons.

Image credit: Creative Commons.