Analysis: Leaks and spy rings only delay the inevitable Israeli operation

The allegedly leaked documents from the US National Security Agency and the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, along with Tehran’s ongoing intelligence operations, are intended to disrupt Israel’s plans to respond to the Iran’s recent ballistic missile attack on Israel. Regardless, Iran is bracing for an Israeli attack that could target its nuclear facilities, and Israel is not letting it down, especially after Hezbollah’s failed attempt to oust the prime minister Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu.

The alleged leak, described by CNN and axes as a major security breach, allegedly describes the scale of Israel’s potential attack against the Islamic Republic. Posted on October 17 on the pro-Iranian “Middle East Spectator” Telegram channel, the two documents are labeled “top secret” and contain notes specifying that they are intended exclusively for the United States and its “Five Eyes” partners : Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

Satellite analysis purportedly compiled by the US National Geospatial Intelligence Agency claims that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has been handling air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) ​​and has moved several munitions, although there is no indication of a planned use of nuclear weapons.

The other document, which appears to be from the National Security Agency, describes recent activities carried out by the IAF, including aerial drills, intelligence operations and the relocation of advanced weapons munitions. The leak alleges that the IAF transferred 16 Golden Horizon missiles, likely a variation of the Israeli Sparrow missile that was used to strike an Iranian S-300 outpost located near the Natanz nuclear facility. The document added that Israel had transferred 40 ROCKS IS02 range air-to-surface missiles developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.

The file also states that the IAF conducted two air drills on October 15-16, practicing air-to-air refueling with three KC-707 tankers and a Gulfstream G550 aircraft. It further states that the IAF installed cloaking screens on six F-15I fighter jets capable of firing ALMBs and suggests that Israel has been deploying surveillance UAVs to monitor various targets.

This is not the first instance in which leaked documents have revealed the imminent threat of a large-scale Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic. In 2012, foreign policy reported that Israel was planning to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities via air bases in the Republic of Azerbaijan. The apparently intentional leak allegedly disrupted the operation, with many officials claiming that elements of the US administration at the time were trying to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear sites.

Meanwhile, Israel has recently uncovered a Tehran-led spy ring consisting of seven Israeli and Azerbaijani nationals. Prosecutors said on October 21 that the suspects had allegedly gathered information about Israel Defense Forces (IDF) facilities, including the Nevatim and Ramat David air bases that were hit by Iranian ballistic missiles and Hezbollah in recent weeks. The defendants are also accused of gathering information about batteries, ports, energy infrastructure and an unnamed “senior security person.”

Despite Tehran’s leaks and intelligence operations, the regime still expects a strong Israeli response that could target Iranian nuclear facilities. A day after the leak, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened that “necessary response will be given to any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or any similar attack.” Echoing these statements, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed that Tehran has sent a formal letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) arguing that an attack on the infrastructure Iran’s nuclear program is not allowed under UN Security Council Resolution 533.

A recent escalation by the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance has put further pressure on Israel to make a forceful response. A drone launched on October 19 by Hezbollah struck the residence of Israel’s prime minister, prompting Netanyahu to immediately issue a warning: “The agents of Iran who today tried to assassinate me and my wife They made a serious mistake.”

Apparently aware of its miscalculation amid heightened tensions, Iran quickly backtracked on its links to the attack. News Tasnimclosely affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, first hailed the attack as a “historic event”, only to quickly distance himself by stating that “Hezbollah’s involvement in the attack is in question”. Similarly, the Islamic Republic’s mission to the United Nations denied any involvement in the assassination attempt.

Supposedly, Israel is unfazed by the recent attack by Hezbollah and the threats from Tehran. Israel’s N12 News quoted unnamed political officials as saying that Jerusalem’s response will intensify as a result of the UAV strike. Israel’s Security Cabinet concluded a six-hour meeting on October 20, discussing Israel’s upcoming operation and agreeing to last-minute approval of the strikes to ensure operational security.

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focusing on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence.

Tags: Axis of Resistance, IDF, Iran, Israel