October 2024 Rookie Report: Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams make progress

The ups and downs of watching a new rookie class can create a lot of uncertainty in fantasy football. While it’s fun to have flashy new players to plug into lineups, their immediate usage and tendencies may not make fantasy managers jump for joy just yet. Here, I want to give you an update on how the rookies are doing and their fantasy values. A monthly report will provide analysis of these, and October will discuss the top drivers in terms of fantasy opportunities at each position.

Click here for September’s Rookie Report.

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Defense quarters

Handy Quarterback Tracker:

Statistics via Professional football reference (Updated until Week 7’s Nix-Rattler matchup)

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels has been consistent for the 4-2 Commanders, looking like the best rookie quarterback yet. He ranks first among rookies in every metric on the table above and is a top-five fantasy quarterback this season. Kliff Kingsbury does it by making anticipation throws and hitting his reads, while Daniels has shown the ability to scramble and make throws on the run. Daniels and Terry McLaurin have benefited from each other, with McLaurin putting up fantastic, career-best production in 2020. Daniels’ fantasy directors are thrilled with what they’ve gotten from him in October

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams has made the biggest jump from first to second among rookie quarterbacks. Struggling in a stagnant offense from the start, Williams has developed into a playmaker and has racked up 530 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven consecutive fantasy completions over his last two games. He has a passer rating above 100 each of the past three weeks and the Bears are 4-2. The main positive development has been his success throwing the ball more down the field, more than doubling his yards per attempt from the first two weeks of the season to the last four. Williams has played himself back into the low-end QB1 conversation.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

The Broncos’ offense is four back in total yards per game (as of Week 6), much of it coming from questionable throws and a stagnant passing game. While Bo Nix is ​​still the Broncos’ starter, he’s teetering dangerously on the Will Levis/Aidan O’Connell level. He averaged the fewest yards per attempt among rookie quarterbacks before posting nearly double his season total against the Saints on Thursday. Nix’s rushing ability boosts him to a low-end weekly QB2 status.

The rest: The other rookies to start are Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler. Maye threw three touchdowns and two interceptions in a loss to the Texans in Week 6. A third of his attempts went beyond 10 yards, including a 40-yard touchdown to Kayshon Boutte. Fantasy managers would be happy with his production as his performance showed he can be in the QB2 mix. Rattler is only a starter until Derek Carr returns, so fantasy managers can value him as a fantasy QB3 among the injury-riddled Saints for now.

Running Back

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Following a trend from the first month, Bucky Irving has been a more efficient runner than Rachaad White. He is averaging 5.7 yards to carry to White’s 3.7. Irving finally started Week 6, totaling 105 yards and a score, but was outscored by Sean Tucker’s 192 and two scores. Moving forward, the Bucs backfield can become more of a committee. Irving has taken advantage of his opportunity enough to be a fantasy RB2 with white outside and a FLEX option with white inside.

Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants

Former college wide receiver Tyrone Tracy makes a splash in the Giants’ backfield. His had 18 touches for 130 yards in Week 5, followed by a less efficient but productive Week 6 of 17 touches and 107 yards. Devin Singletary’s return will affect Tracy’s fantasy viability, but his workhorse production may have earned him more than the 20-30 percent of snaps he received Weeks 1-4. Tracy is worth keeping on fantasy benches as a valuable handle with FLEX value potential.

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

The 2024 running back class is full of fantasy tight ends, and Ray Davis is one of the most valuable. His game carries a lot of power, a good fit alongside Josh Allen. Davis finally got an extended look in Week 6 with James Cook out, totaling 23 touches for 152 yards. Cook’s return will relegate Davis back to a backup role, but now we’ve seen how he can be used with 20 carries on just over 60 percent of the snaps. Davis could play a bigger role in the future, but for now he’s a main cog in a good offense.

More handcuffs: Jaylen Wright (Dolphins), Trey Benson (Cardinals), Braelon Allen (Jets), Blake Corum (Rams), Isaac Guerendo (49ers) and Audric Estime (Broncos) are handcuffs with fantasy starter value should the backs that they have in front of them are missing. time MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) is also there, although he has an ankle injury. Jonathon Brooks (Panthers) is the prize at the end of the ACL recovery road that fantasy managers have kept on IR. There’s still time for him to play again, but Brooks is intriguing late-season fantasy material.

Wide receivers

Tier 1: Weekly Fantasy Performers

The wide receiver position has far more fantasy-relevant players than other skill positions, so a level-by-level breakdown of fantasy relevance is more valuable here. The chart below shows the fantasy production of receivers throughout the season that managers are considering for weekly lineups: Malik Nabers (Giants), Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals), Xavier Worthy (Chiefs), Ladd McConkey (Chargers), and Rome Odunze (Bears).

Nabers belongs on a level of his own, still ranking first in PPR fantasy points among rookie receivers despite missing two games due to a concussion. His team-high 13 targets per game not only gives the rookie WR1 ceiling, but the overall WR1 ceiling.

The rest of the group does not start automatically. Thomas is a productive target in a Jags offense. Harrison is a touchdown-dependent play that will require some patience, especially after suffering a concussion in Week 6. Both are in the WR2 mix.

Worthy, meanwhile, is a big-play guy for the Chiefs who haven’t seen a hit on targets since Rashee Rice went down. He’s a boom-or-fall WR3. McConkey is in a low-volume passing offense with a consistent six targets per game. Odunze is in a Bears offense that has been building him up, but he faces target competition from veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Both McConkey and Odunze are also in the WR3 range.

Level 2: Next

This level of receivers is in the WR4-5 fantasy mix, stepping into lineups in case another receiver on their team misses time. Keon Coleman (Bills) and Xavier Legette (Panthers) lead that group, each with a pair of receiving touchdowns and showing flashes of fantasy relevance throughout the season. Coleman’s chances have diminished with the Bills’ acquisition of Amari Cooper, but Legette has more opportunities as the Panthers are in another developmental season.

Jordan Whittington (Rams) filled Cooper Kupp’s role, taking advantage of the absences of Kupp and Puka Nacua and tallying 18 targets between Weeks 4 and 5. With Kupp’s return soon, Whittington will return to fantasy benches, but it’s worth it keep an eye on it

Ja’Lynn Polk (Patriots) and Adonai Mitchell (Colts) are players who have yet to see significant use. The Pats’ coaching staff keeps Polk in the mix, and Drake Maye is an improved quarterback for Polk’s potential receivers. Meanwhile, Mitchell remains third at Indy with Michael Pittman (back) somehow not missing a beat, but both are worth noting as late-season targets.

Level 3 – Breakouts soon?

The bottom tier of receivers here are guys worth keeping an eye on who may not be fantasy relevant yet. Jalen Coker (Panthers) has seen more opportunities with Adam Thielen out. Bub Means (Saints) also gets more of a chance with Rashid Shaheed (knee) out for the season. The Broncos’ Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin are in the mix for a murky Broncos receiving corps.

Tight ends

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

Again, this is a short section. Brock Bowers remains the top tight end, and with Davante Adams out of Las Vegas, he’s on track to surpass 100 receptions on the season. The rest of the season he is a top five tight end and a top three tight end for those playing in Dynasty leagues.

The rest: The Bengals’ Erick All has seen light use this season, catching 16 of 17 targets for 102 yards. Mike Gesicki remains the top tight end, but All can be classified as a deep league dart and is a better value for Dynasty leagues.

Ja’Tavion Sanders of the Panthers has caught 13 of 18 targets for 90 yards, seeing more use with Andy Dalton at quarterback. With 12 targets in his last two games, Sanders is a deep streamer.

The Giants’ Theo Johnson is the last rookie tight end with 10+ receptions, though he should remain on fantasy benches this season unless Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson miss time.