At the crossroads of rivers and rivalries

Water is more than a lifeline – it is a tool of power, diplomacy and survival, especially in regions where access to it is a source of tension and conflict. As the world faces increasing water scarcity, managing shared water resources is becoming a geopolitical challenge of the highest order. Nowhere is this more evident than in the water conflicts involving Israel, Palestine, India and Pakistan, where diplomatic maneuvering over rivers and dams shapes the political landscape as much as any border dispute.

In the arid Middle East, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is deeply intertwined with water. Israel controls nearly 85 percent of the West Bank’s shared water resources, including the mountain aquifer and the Jordan River, leaving the Palestinians to survive on a fraction of the available supply. UN figures say the Israeli population was close to 300 liters per person, while Palestinians barely have access to 70 litres, as opposed to 100 – the minimum recommended by the WHO.

In South Asia, the stakes are just as high. The limitations of the Indus Waters Treaty have become apparent as India continues to build dams and hydroelectric projects on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) that are supposed to flow freely into Pakistan. India’s Kishanganga and Baglihar dam projects, which Pakistan claims reduce the flow of water into its territories, have led to several disputes subject to international arbitration. For Pakistan, these projects are not just an environmental concern, but an existential threat. The headworks of Pakistan’s main rivers are located in Indian territory, making Pakistan vulnerable to India’s water policies. This dependency is a ticking time bomb, especially in times of drought or political tension.

Domestically, Pakistan is facing its own water management crisis, with the Kalabagh dam issue representing deep divisions in the country. Proposed as a 3,600 MW hydroelectric project capable of storing water at 6.1 maf, the Kalabagh dam has been a political flashpoint for decades. Provinces have different views on the project, with Punjab proposing the project as a measure to regulate floods and provide electricity, which is in high demand. Sindh, KPK and Balochistan have strong objections to the proposal. Sindh believes that the dam would reduce the water flow of the Indus River and its farms would be deprived of water. KPK believes that the dam will submerge large portions of Nowshera and many will become homeless. The project was transformed from one of flooding to the harshest definition of interregional mistrust, the consequences of which only demonstrate the need for a more participatory approach in dealing with national water projects.

The way forward is clear: regional cooperation and sustainable water management must be a priority. First, water-sharing agreements such as the Indus Water Treaty need to be updated to reflect modern realities—climate change, population growth, and increasing water demand. Nations must invest in efficient water infrastructure, from modern irrigation systems to dams that do not disrupt ecosystems or displace large populations. International bodies should oversee disputes to ensure agreements are upheld, and any new projects should be subject to environmental impact assessments that consider not just technical feasibility but also the human cost. Moreover, governments and populations alike must come to terms with a critical reality: there is no mega project without a mega sacrifice. However, adequate compensation, resettlement plans and livelihood support must be guaranteed to all those displaced by large-scale infrastructure projects.

Water diplomacy is no longer an option – it is a necessity. Countries must see cooperation, not competition, as the only way forward. Whether it is dividing the Jordan River or resolving the Kalabagh dam debate, the future of water diplomacy will determine the fate of millions. Only by coming together can we hope to secure a future where water flows not just as a resource, but as an instrument of peace and stability.