Win or lose, the GOP is Trump’s party

Donald Trump is near the beginning of a new presidency − or the beginning of a post-campaign career that could be filled with criminal prosecutions, lawsuits, legal expensesand political recriminations.

The next presidential administration will look dramatically different depending on whether Trump wins or falls Election daybut some things are likely to be true anyway.

Trump’s imprint on American political life has been profound. Some of the discord, thickness, controversy and political realignment he introduced could disappear if he loses, but much of it could persist in some form, experts say.

Win or lose, Trumpism will have a massive impact on a Republican Party that is at a crossroads.

If Trump loses, “there’s going to be a lot of ringing and finger-pointing that will start right away,” he said. Frank Luntz surveywho has worked with Republican candidates for decades.

If he wins? An even Trumpier party.

Luntz said, “Victory has a way of healing all wounds. If Trump wins, the party is truly his and the movement moves forward.”

Many Republicans believe he cannot go back to the Republican Party of old, before Trump seized it and remade it in his image. The new MAGA GOP is more extreme, more labor-oriented, and more populist than the old internationalist, business-oriented party.

“This Republican Party has changed forever,” said the chairman of the Conservative Political Action Committee Matt Schlapp.

However, Trump’s influence goes far beyond politics and populism.

He is defined by his combative personality, his lack of inhibitions, his willingness to ignore democratic norms to go places others won’t, and push previous political boundaries in ways that many find alarming – such as threatening to use the military against Americans who oppose him. .

“Trump doesn’t care about the rules, he doesn’t think they apply to him,” said Ty Cobb, who served as Trump’s White House lawyer and is now a critic.

Having said and done things that other politicians wouldn’t, Trump could make it easier for others to follow.

Trump has survived scandal after scandal – including two impeachments, fomenting an insurrection, four criminal charges, conviction of 34 offences and a civil verdict who found him guilty of sexual abuse and defamation – normalizing for his party what previously might have been disqualifying.

He threatened to use the government to he goes after his political enemiesleading to criticism that he is pushing democracy to breaking point.

And falsely claiming that the 2020 election was stolen and continuing his baseless rhetoric about “cheated” in the 2024 contest, Trump has undermined confidence in the electoral system for millions of Americans. A January USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found that 67% of Trump supporters don’t believe it President Joe Biden was legitimately elected and 52% were not confident that the results of the 2024 election would be accurately counted and reported.

That trust could be hard to restore, especially since Trump seems certain to continue that message if he loses. Lawsuits for a potential loss seem likely. Trump’s campaign has filed dozens of lawsuits challenging his 2020 loss, and nearly all of them have failed.

Trump also took advantage of the darker rhetoric used by far-right figures, raising questions about whether such incendiary language could become more widely accepted in the GOP.

The former president routinely savages his opponents and uses language associated with authoritarian regimes, exposing his political opposition as “enemies within” and “parasites.”

Trump’s transgressive approach has proven popular on the right.

“What he exemplifies is the idea that it’s okay to crush someone, twist their arm and have everyone cheer for it, that’s really attractive to a lot of people,” said. Trump biographer Gwenda Blair.

Many of Trump’s more inflammatory comments have targeted undocumented immigrants, saying they are “blood poisoning” of the country and of those who commit crimes they have “bad genes”. He routinely associated illegal immigration with widespread crime, as opposed to crime data.

Immigration appeared as defining problem for the GOP in the Trump era and will remain in the limelight. Trump changed the conversation, promising deportation every immigrant in the country illegally − over 11 million people.

Trump’s uncompromising approach and refusal to mediate dissent within his party have alienated moderates, prompting most of the party’s top leaders to embrace MAGA populism. Even the insurrection of January 6, 2021when crowds of Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol in an attempt to stop the certification of the 2020 vote, it didn’t stop most members of the party from embracing him again.

“I mean, if he can get away with January 6 and still dominate the consciousness of what appears to be almost 50 percent of the electorate four years later, I have no illusions that his influence will endure,” Cobb said .

Even if Trump loses, some who opposed him are preparing for an extended fight against the former president’s influence after Election Day.

“When Trump is gone, his stain will remain on the Republicans who brought his fascist dreams to their knees. That’s why we must keep fighting, even after Tuesday,” the anti-Trump Lincoln Project wrote Monday, posting a video of former GOP congressman Adam Kinzinger talking about other GOP figures who have taken up Trump’s “mantle” and the need to keep opposition “steamrolling”.

Joking about who will lead the party after Trump has already begun, and the 2028 Republican presidential candidates will begin making their moves — immediately if Trump loses and later in the cycle if he wins.

Attention is already being paid to candidate Trump JD Vance. Other Republicans are eyeing candidates who have fallen short in 2024, including the Florida governor. Ron DeSantis and former governor of South Carolina. Nikki Haley.

Trump’s issues will remain popular with the general public, GOP members said.

Planning a post-Trump path would take time. Some Republicans may want to do another periodic “post-mortem” after a loss, and that will involve a lot of debate.

“It will probably be a few months before the party seriously considers moving on and starts looking for the next big thing,” said Liz Mair, an anti-Trump Republican strategist.

What if there is a second Trump presidency? An even Trumpier party, Mair said, “If he wins, I expect we’ll see even less resistance to even the craziest things he tries in the GOP than we did in his first term.”

Trump campaign adviser Corey Lewandowski said Trump has ushered in a “fundamental shift to where the Republican Party was 10 years ago,” moving it away from “country club Republicans” to “one that includes now the blue collar workers”.

Yet while Trump has reordered the party, Lewandowski noted that he is also a singular figure. Lewandowski painted Trump as the “blue-collar billionaire” who put together a strong working-class coalition that others in the GOP couldn’t, and argued that “no other Republican can pull that off with any kind of authenticity.”

“It’s only because of him that this movement is so big,” Lewandowski said.

Trump has so completely dominated the GOP that the party will face a vacuum if he loses. He has no clear successor in the pipeline.

“Trump is unique, someone can’t just take Trump’s mantle,” the former GOP said Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy.

And while Trump will likely remain influential within his party no matter what happens on Election Day, he could be hampered by legal problems, especially if he loses. He faces four criminal charges, including a case in New York where he is awaiting sentencing for 34 crimes for money paid to an adult film actress to hide an affair before the 2016 election.

Some of those cases could disappear if Trump wins — he has promised to fire them special counsel Jack Smithwhich is pursuing Trump on charges stemming from his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and alleged mishandling of classified documents.

If he loses, Trump will be more exposed to criminal penalties. “He’s going to have to deal with law enforcement,” said Trump biographer Tim O’Brien.