A complete timeline of key moments in the presidential race

On November 5th, voters across the United States will head to the polls to choose their next president.

What began as a repeat of the 2020 race took a surprising turn in July when President Joe Biden announced he would end his campaign by endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. Now, the central question is whether America will see its first female president or a return to office for Donald Trump.

Who leads in the national polls?

Since joining the race in late July, Harris has held a slight lead over Trump in national polling averages, and she still leads. From the latest round numbers, Harris had a brief surge in support in the early weeks of his campaign, increasing his lead to nearly four points by the end of August.

The polls remained relatively consistent through September and early October, but recent weeks have shown a tightening of the numbers. The chart below illustrates this, with trend lines showing overall averages and individual points indicating separate polling results for each candidate.

While national polls provide an overview of a candidate’s popularity nationwide, they do not predict the outcome of an election due to the electoral college system used in the US. In this system, each state is assigned a number of electoral votes based on its population size, with 538 votes in total. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to ensure victory.

Although there are 50 states, most tend to vote consistently for the same party, leaving only a few critical “swing states” where the race could go either way. These states will ultimately decide the outcome.

Who Leads in Swing State Polls?

Currently, the leaders in swing states are extremely close, making it difficult to determine who is truly ahead based on polling averages.

Polls can indicate general public opinion, but they are not intended to predict election results to within a fraction of a percentage point. Each individual poll contributing to these averages has a margin of error, typically around three to four percentage points, meaning candidates could be performing slightly better or worse than these numbers suggest.

Here’s a full timeline of what happened between Trump and Harris in the presidential race:

2023: Early speculation and campaign releases

April 2023 – Kamala Harris signals intent: Amid speculation about Joe Biden’s decision not to run for re-election, Vice President Kamala Harris is indicating her willingness to enter the race if he decides not to seek a second term.

May 2023 – Trump announces candidacy: Former President Donald Trump officially launches his campaign, focusing on economic issues, border security and reversing Biden-era policies. This move establishes him early as a Republican leader.

June 2023 – Kamala Harris officially enters the race: After Biden confirms he will not run, Harris officially launches his campaign. Her platform emphasizes civil rights, economic equality, and health care reform.

2023: The first political debates and clashes

August 2023 – Harris proposes climate action plan: Harris introduces an aggressive climate action strategy, pledging major investments in clean energy. Trump has criticized the plan, calling it a “job killer” and “unrealistic.”

September 2023 – Trump highlights economic achievements: Trump shifts focus to his previous term, emphasizing job growth and a strong stock market. He argues that Harris’ policies would hinder the economic recovery.

October 2023 – Campaign rally showdown: Both candidates hold major rallies in swing states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, where Trump promises to restore “America First” policies while Harris talks about income inequality and health care.

2024: Heated primary season

February 2024 – Super Tuesday Results: Harris secures seat as Democratic nominee with decisive primary wins. Trump, although initially contested, is consolidating his place as the Republican nominee after defeating competitors in key states.

March 2024 – Health care debate heats up: Harris campaigns hard to expand affordable health care. Trump counters by promoting market-based solutions and accuses Harris of pushing for “socialized medicine.”

Spring 2024: Domestic issues and foreign policy disputes

April 2024 – Immigration policy clash: Harris proposes an immigration reform package with a path to citizenship. Meanwhile, Trump is reiterating his strong stance on border security, calling Harris’ plan “weak.”

May 2024 – Middle East tensions highlight foreign policy differences: Amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, Trump criticizes Harris for what he calls a “soft stance” on US allies. Harris advocates a balanced approach, emphasizing diplomacy and humanitarian support.

June 2024 – Harris emphasizes voting rights: Harris focuses on voting rights and fair elections, promising to strengthen protections. Trump accuses her of wanting to change election laws to favor Democrats.

Summer 2024: Heated exchanges and big policy announcements

July 2024 – National Convention Season: Both candidates formally accept their nominations. Harris emphasizes unity and inclusion, while Trump champions the restoration of the “American dream.”

August 2024 – Harris pushes for police reform: Following a high-profile incident involving police violence, Harris advocates for comprehensive police reform, which Trump opposes, emphasizing “law and order”.

August 2024 – Trump introduces tax cut proposal: Trump proposes a series of tax cuts, claiming they will boost economic growth. Harris criticizes the cuts, arguing that they primarily benefit the wealthy.

Fall 2024: Debates and final campaign efforts

September 2024 – First presidential debate: The two candidates meet for their first debate, discussing key issues such as health care, the economy and foreign policy. The debate is very polarized, with strong performances from both.

October 2024 – Campaigning in Swing States intensifies: Both campaigns focus on battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida. Trump targets rural voters and emphasizes economic recovery, while Harris appeals to urban centers with messages of social justice.

October 2024 – Final National Security Debate: In the final debate, national security takes center stage. Harris advocates diplomatic strategies, while Trump insists on a strong military presence abroad.

November 2024: Election Day and Results

November 5, 2024 – Election Day: Americans cast their ballots after one of the most watched and hotly contested campaigns in recent history. Independent and third-party candidates are also expected to play a role in the final outcome.

November 2024 – Results Pending: With the final tally close in key states, the country awaits the outcome, which will likely have a lasting impact on US politics for years to come.