These were the most accurate polls in 2020: Which candidate has the best chance of winning?

As the election approaches, many people turn to the polls to assess the current state of the race. However, before you get overwhelmed by complex data analysis, it’s important to remember that surveys are only snapshots in time. Some voters who say they plan to vote may ultimately choose not to, while others who say they won’t vote may end up voting.

Current polls point to a close race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. Both candidates have a vested interest in keeping the polls competitive as they rely on these numbers to energize their supporters. If the polls indicated a decisive lead for a candidate, the projected loser might see turnout drop, feeling disheartened by the seeming hopelessness of their situation. Conversely, if a candidate leads by a large margin, their supporters may become complacent, believing victory is assured without their participation.

Focusing on swing states

Since the Electoral College determines the presidency in the United States, this analysis examines the polls that accurately predicted the election results in six key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If we keep the electoral map for 2020, excluding Electoral College votes from these six states, Democrats would have 232 votes and Republicans 219.

Marist College of Arizona and Pennsylvania

In 2020, Marist College accurately predicted that Joe Biden would win Arizona. This year, the latest poll on the state of the Arizona race found Donald Trump holding a slight lead, but it was within the margin of error. However, pollsters noted that Kamala Harris had a ten-point lead among independent voters.

As for Pennsylvania, Marist College found Kamala Harris with a two-point lead over Donald Trump, though those results are still within the margin of error. In 2020, this situation predicted a victory for Joe Biden in the state.

Quinnipiac in Georgia

In mid-October 2020, Quinnipiac University Pollsters showed Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump by a 51 percent to 44 percent margin. He won the Peach State by 0.23 percent.

Quinnipiac’s most recent poll, released on October 16, 2024showed Trump ahead of Harris by seven points, nearly the opposite of what polls reported in 2020. The margin of error is ±3.0 percent, meaning Trump, according to this poll, holds a statistically significant lead over Harris.

AtlasIntel of Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin

AtlasIntel was one of the most effective polling agencies in predicting the results of many 2020 state elections, including those in Michigan and North Carolina. In Michigan, the agency reported Biden leading Trump by 2 points in 2020. This year, their poll shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 1 point, which is within the margin of error.

Almost every major pollster had North Carolina wrong in 2020, but with Trump winning by 1.34%, it was anyone’s race.

In late October 2020, AtlasIntel projected that Donald Trump would win by two points over his rival. The same agency currently has Donald Trump ahead by four points, based on polls conducted between two points, based on polls conducted between October 30 and 31. The margin of error in that poll was three percent, meaning the AtlasIntel data indicates Trump’s lead is outside that range.

The group correctly projected that Biden would win Wisconsin in 2020, and their latest poll shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris so close it’s impossible to say that either candidate has a significant lead.