Early voting surge by new voters could sway key US states

ANKARA

New voter turnout is on the rise in early voting for the 2024 US presidential election, with trends among Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona suggesting these new entrants could play a pivotal role in key swing states , according to Friday press reports.

With nearly 60 million votes already cast, early voting data provides insight into the dynamics of this year’s presidential race.

An NBC News Decision Desk analysis shows a substantial influx of new voters — those who didn’t participate in the 2020 election — who turned out in significant numbers in crucial battleground states.

Pennsylvania and Arizona

The impact of new voters is particularly evident in Pennsylvania, where more than 100,000 ballots have already been cast. That number exceeds Biden’s 2020 margin over Trump in the state, highlighting the potential influence of these new entrants.

Most surprisingly, Democratic women lead the way among new voters in Pennsylvania, nearly doubling the number of new Republican women. That strong presence could tip the balance in a state widely seen as critical to both campaigns.

In Arizona, however, the pattern reverses. New male Republican voters dominate the early voting landscape, indicating strong Republican engagement in the state. In addition, new female Republican voters slightly outnumber new female Democratic voters, suggesting an early turnout advantage for Republicans.

The margin in Arizona’s 2020 election was particularly narrow — just over 10,000 votes — meaning this surge in new Republican-leaning voters could have a significant impact.

Adding to the complexity, a sizable portion of new voters in Pennsylvania and Arizona chose not to affiliate with any party. These unaffiliated voters could either bolster or undermine the party’s apparent early turnout advantage, making its leanings a crucial unknown in the race.

Michigan and Wisconsin

In other swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, different trends are emerging.

Although these states do not record party affiliation, early estimates suggest that New Democratic voters may outnumber their Republican counterparts, while New Republican men outnumber Democratic men.

However, without hard data on party affiliation, these projections remain less certain, allowing room for variability in the final results.

North Carolina and Nevada

North Carolina and Nevada present a different scenario, with independent voters making up the bulk of new voters.

This widespread independence adds even more uncertainty, as the choices of these unaffiliated voters could ultimately tip the scales in these and other swing states.

With new voter turnout already exceeding 2020 margins in several battleground states, their potential influence cannot be understated.

However, the lack of a clear affiliation for many voters, combined with differences in voter registration practices between states, leaves room for speculation.

Analysts advise caution in interpreting these early numbers, reminding observers that while early voting provides a glimpse into the election, it cannot definitively predict the outcome.

Election Day — including presidential and congressional elections — is set for Nov. 5. But more than 68 million people have already voted early, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

About 1 million more Democrats than Republicans — 13,015,856 to 12,135,666 — voted early either in person at the polls or by mail.

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