If accurate, the new Harris vs. Trump looks the likely presidential winner

Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in the new “blue wall” poll, which represents three states that could give her a White House victory.

Marist College dropped three new polls early Friday for likely voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The three polls, all conducted Oct. 27-30, found Harris with a narrow lead over the former president in all three states, which comes just days before polls open on Nov. 5.

Winning all three “blue wall” states. is the best way for Harris to win the White House. President Biden carried the three states in 2020 after Trump turned them red in 2016 in his race against Hillary Clinton.

The Michigan poll found Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump. She had 51 percent of the support of likely voters, while Trump got 48 percent. Another 1% said they would vote for another candidate.

While Harris maintains a slight lead in Michigan, her lead is down from when the poll was last taken in September, when she had a 5-point lead. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in the news release that favorability ratings lead more voters to support Harris than Trump.

“The bottom line in Michigan is that there are more voters who have a better impression of Harris than Trump,” Miringoff said. “Trump’s favorability rating is reversed. His negative rating significantly outweighs his positive score.”

The Michigan results were based on responses from 1,214 likely voters and have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

In WisconsinHarris has a 2-point lead over Trump. She garnered 50 percent of the support of likely voters, while Trump trailed at 48 percent. One percent said they would vote for another party’s candidate, while another percent said they were undecided.

Miringoff said the tight race is due to Harris’ “weaker share against Trump among independents compared to Biden four years ago.” She has a 6-point lead among independents in the new poll, but Biden had a 12-point lead in 2020. The results are based on 1,330 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

One of the polls also found that Harris has a lead of 2 points on Trump from Pennsylvania. She has 50 percent of the support of likely voters, while Trump has 48 percent. One percent said they would vote for another party’s candidate, while another percent said they were undecided.

In Pennsylvania, there was a 19-point swing among independents. Harris now has 55 percent of independent support, while Trump has 40 percent.

“The Keystone State is the biggest prize of the three so-called highly competitive blue wall states,” Miringoff said in the news release. “The good news for Harris is that she is stronger among independents and white voters than Biden did four years ago. The bad news is that the gender gap is not as wide here as it was in 2020, or indeed where it is elsewhere now.”

The Pennsylvania results are based on responses from 1,400 likely voters and have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.