Survey finds skepticism of US election accounts, particularly among Republicans

The nation’s deep partisan divisions extend to voter confidence for this year’s election, as a new poll shows Republicans are far more skeptical than Democrats that ballots will be counted accurately.

Voters are generally more distrustful of the results of the statewide ballot compared to the declines made by their own local election offices, according to The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.

About half of registered Republican voters have “very much” or “somewhat” confidence that the vote will be counted accurately by their local election officials, and about 4 in 10 say the same about the vote count in their state, but only about a a quarter have at least “quite a bit” of confidence in the national number.

However, the overall level of trust among Republican voters in all three is lower than among Democratic voters. About three-quarters of Democrats say they have at least “somewhat” confidence that votes will be accurately counted nationally, in their state or by their local election officials.

This year’s election marks the first presidential race since former President Donald Trump began a campaign of lies about the stolen 2020 election — a narrative that has undermined public confidence in the election results among a broad swath of conservative voters, despite that there is no evidence of widespread fraud.

Election experts have warned that Trump could be laying the groundwork to contest the election again if he loses.

David Farrington, a 78-year-old conservative from Fort Worth, Texas, said he distrusts mail-in ballots and ballot boxes, both common targets for claims of voter fraud and election conspiracies that seek to sow distrust in the election results.

“I’m not worried about the number of votes,” Farrington said. “I have every confidence in all the precincts and their ability to count the ballots that are there. But the ballots – we don’t know if they’re legitimate or not.”

In contrast, Ruth Edwards, a 28-year-old kindergarten teacher from Tampa, Florida, said she has “never seen evidence that the election is rigged.”

“Only people who are upset about their candidate’s loss are now claiming it’s rigged without evidence,” said Edwards, a Democrat. “It’s ridiculous.”

Overall, voters are more likely to believe that votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately by their local or state election officials than at the national level, according to the poll. About 6 in 10 voters have “very much” or “somewhat” confidence that votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately by local or state election officials, while about half say this about the votes counted at the national level.

About a quarter of each case has a “moderate amount” of confidence. About 3 in 10 say they have “little” or no confidence in the number nationally, while fewer say that about the number in their state or by local officials.

Drew Inman, a 31-year-old Republican who works in law enforcement in New Jersey, said he is skeptical that votes will be counted accurately at all levels, but especially in counties outside his own.

“I certainly trust my vote to be counted locally more than I trust the national vote count,” he said. “… When you go national, there are a lot more people involved and that can create corruption.”

While ballots may include races for federal office such as president or Congress, the US does not hold national elections like other countries do. All elections are run by states and administered by local election offices in thousands of towns, cities and counties.

Election officials have acknowledged that many skeptical voters tend to point to other jurisdictions with false claims of fraud. Some groups have tried to counter this perception by pointing out that elections in each state are conducted at the local level.

“What’s difficult is when we have a national election, a lot of times people will throw election professionals under the bus from another state, and that’s not helpful,” said Tammy Patrick, a former election official now with the National Association of Electoral Officials.

Older voters trust vote counting at all levels more than younger voters, including counting by local election officials. About half of voters ages 18 to 29 are at least “fairly confident” that votes will be counted accurately in their state or by their local election officials, compared with about 7 in 10 voters age 60 years and more.

However, the gap is narrower for the number of votes nationally: about 4 in 10 voters aged 18 to 29 have at least “quite a bit” of confidence, compared with about half of voters aged 60 and over more.

Bill Sanchez, a 29-year-old criminal attorney from Monroe County, Pennsylvania, said older voters have been watching and participating in the election process for longer, giving them more time to build trust.

“Younger voters have less voting experience and have spent much of their lives surrounded by this type of misinformation that we’re seeing more and more of,” Sanchez said. “… It just sets the stage for younger voters to be more distrustful.”

About 6 in 10 Republicans say ineligible voting is a major problem in US elections, compared to 2 in 10 Democrats. Democrats and Republicans differ most on whether mail-in ballots that are returned via the U.S. Postal Service or a drop box will be counted accurately. About 6 in 10 Democrats are “extremely” or “very confident” that mail-in ballots that are returned by these methods will be counted accurately, compared with about 1 in 10 Republicans.

Meanwhile, Democrats are far more concerned with voter suppression than Republicans. About half of Democrats say voter suppression is a major problem, compared with about a third of Republicans.

And about 4 in 10 voters are concerned about other countries tampering with U.S. voting systems or election results, which is down slightly from when the question was last asked in February 2020. That’s something independent voters are at least slightly more likely to be concerned. roughly than Democrats or Republicans.

Sanchez, the Pennsylvania attorney, said he was more concerned about voter suppression than widespread fraud or ballot miscounting and called for expanding early voting and mail-in ballots to “make voting as accessible as possible possible”. He is also concerned about the potential for false claims of voter fraud to incite violence and unrest, and said he hopes efforts by election officials to inform voters ahead of the election will help.

“There’s a lot of misinformation and disinformation about election security from bad faith actors trying to create mistrust and take advantage of the fact that people don’t always understand everything about the process,” Sanchez said. “And when we don’t understand. we understand things, we come to fear it.”