The battle for control of the US Senate is breaking spending records

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Billions of dollars in advertising are raining down on voters in Pennsylvania and the Rust Belt, Rocky Mountains and American Southwest, as the two major political parties portray their opponents’ candidates as extreme in a battle for control of US Senate.

In just three races — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana — more than $1 billion is expected to be spent by Nov. 5.

Race in Ohio could break the spending record for Senate races. Race in mountain will become the most expensive Senate race ever on a vote-by-vote basis. And in the endgame, Democrats are sending millions more dollars to Texas, a GOP stronghold where the party has new hopes of unseating the conservative two-term senator. Ted Cruzan upset that could help them protect their majority.

Republicans need to pick up two seats to secure a safe majority, and one of them – West Virginia — is almost in the bag for the GOP.

Other races are more volatile and less predictable.

For Democrats, the brutal math of this year’s election cycle forces them to defend eight seats in tough states. Losses by established incumbents could amount to an extinction-level event for Democrats who represent reliably Republican states.

The election will also test the power of the negative vote of both parties Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvaniathe main presidential battleground states known as the Blue Wall for their relatively safe Democratic voting history. Republican wins there would dramatically alter the Senate playing field.

In all, data from political ad tracking firm AdImpact projects that more than $2.5 billion will be spent on advertising in Senate races this two-year campaign cycle, slightly more than the 2022 total.

That includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, another $340 million in Pennsylvania and $280 million in Montana, a population of 1.1 million or less than one-tenth the population of Ohio or Pennsylvania. The most expensive Senate race ever was Democratic John Ossoff his victory in a Georgia contest who went on a tour of duty in 2021 and decided control of the Senate, according to data from the campaign finance watchdog Open secrets.

In general, campaign strategists say that the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump votes ahead of his party’s Senate nominees in Senate battleground states, while Democratic candidates in those states vote ahead of their presidential nominee, Kamala Harris.

That means there’s a portion of voters who might vote for Trump but don’t support Republicans in Senate races — or who might split tickets with Democratic Senate candidates.

Such ruptures were rare. In Maine in 2020, voters backed the Democrat Joe Biden for president and re-elected Republican senator. Susan Collinsfor example.

Republican strategists said they expect the party’s major super PACs to spend by Election Day in seven states where Democrats are defending their Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show competitive races. but also Nevada and Arizonawhere Republicans are buoyed by strong early voting numbers.

Republicans are most confident of flipping the seat in deep-red Montana, where Republicans Tim Sheehy challenges the third-term Democratic senator. Jon Tester. They’re also bullish on safe red Ohio, where it’s Republican Bernie Moreno challenges the third-term Democratic senator. Sherrod Brown.

Torunn Sinclair, a spokesman for a pair of Republican-aligned super PACs, said one — American Crossroads — is pulling $2.8 million from Montana, while the pair is throwing a few million more into Pennsylvania.

There, Republican David McCormick is trying to eliminate the three-term Democratic senator. Bob Casey in an undercard presidential battleground that both sides say is close.

McCormick, the former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, delivered the message in two debates that Casey is a “sure thing” to support the Biden-Harris administration’s agenda.

In recent days, Casey has begun running an ad in conservative areas promoting his “greed” legislation to target rising prices. The ad says “Casey rejected Biden to protect fracking” and “sided with Trump” on trade and tariffs.

Republicans say Casey’s ad featuring Trump is similar to a TV ad that Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin is on the air and talks about the need for both Democrats to guard against Harris’ vulnerability in their states.

“They’re hoping to eliminate enough Trump voters to win,” Sinclair said.

Still, Casey ran a similar ad in the 2018 midterm elections, when he won handily — even though that ad didn’t mention Trump — while Casey’s campaign notes that he has long since broken with Democrats, opposing to free trade agreements and supporting fossil fuel energy projects.

Instead, Democrats say they are forcing competitive contests late in the campaign in two red states, Texas and Nebraska. Removing incumbent Republicans from one or both seats could help Democrats split at least 50-50 in the Senate if Democrats lose in Montana or Ohio.

In Texas, Rep. US. Colin Allreda former professional football player, has proven adept at raising small dollar donations in his challenge to current Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Allred outperformed all Senate candidates nationally except Tester and Brown.

The ad spending lead for Allred was 3 to 2, according to AdImpact, the Senate Democratic-aligned PAC, proposing a new seven-figure digital ad buy and a separate new buy. $5 million TV ad buy attacking Cruz on a key issue for Democrats, abortion rights.

Besides, Democrats hope Harris rally in Houston on Friday with Allred and Beyoncé can help Allred by increasing black voter turnout.

In Nebraskaindependence Dan Osborne — a tattooed former labor leader who supports abortion rights — appears to have consolidated Democratic and independent voters while making some inroads among Republicans, Democratic strategists say.

While Osborn is running as an independent and has not said which party he will run with, he is receiving support from a liberal super PAC that has helped him gain a significant spending advantage over the Republican senator. Deb Fischer.

In both states, Republicans admit they had to spend unexpectedly to shore up the prospects of their incumbents, but they also say they expect to win comfortably.

In Ohio, Brown tried to personalize his appeal by appearing in most of his own commercials and speaking directly to the camera.

“I’m Sherrod Brown and I have a question,” Brown says, looking into the room and resting his elbow on what might be a woodworking shop table. “Have you ever heard Bernie Moreno talk about what he’s going to do for Ohio?”

Brown also makes a personal appeal to potential swing voters, saying he has spent his career fighting for workers and veterans and working with law enforcement and “presidents of both parties to do what’s best for our state.”

Elsewhere, strategists await the first term Florida Sen. Rick Scott will fend off a Democratic challenge Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and that Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in deep blue Maryland the former governor will beat. Larry Hogan to fill a seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin.