Texas Tech vs Iowa State Predictions and Picks – Week 10 College Football

The Iowa State Cyclones look to keep their perfect record intact with a home game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Week 10. The Cyclones have been impressive, but is a 13.5 point spread too much for a conference game?

Read my Texas Tech vs. Iowa State to be optimal college football picks for Saturday, November 2.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State prediction and best bet

My best bet
Texas Tech +13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The Big 12 is the conference of chaos. Almost any team can win in a given matchup – the margins for error are small as there are rarely clear favorites and no opponent can be overlooked given the parity.

That’s why when I see a team as a 13.5-point favorite in this conference, I’ll do a double-double and throw more depth to see if the line is justified. Let me walk you through what that inspection revealed for Iowa State Cyclones and Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The Cyclones outgained opponents by +1.4 yards per play. Thing is, they also benefited from being +9 in turnover differential, which may or may not be sustainable going forward.

The Red Raiders have turned the ball over 12 times and are +2 in turnover differential. The defense needs a lot of work (115th in EPA per game, 107th in success rate), but the offense has moved and is improving (30th in EPA per game, 27th in success rate).

Quarterback Behren Morton was forced out of last week’s game before halftime, but he practiced this week and appears on track to play. If he’s not ready, true freshman Will Hammond looks like a rising star and provides a very capable backup.

I’m hesitant to buy into the Iowa State hype, in part because the Cyclones haven’t been very impressive from a hit rate perspective. It’s a stat I hold in high regard because it essentially shows whether or not you can consistently move the ball on offense and prevent other teams from doing so on defense.

Iowa State ranks just 82nd in offensive success rate and 63rd in defense. Quarterback Rocco Becht completed just 43.5 percent of his 46 pass attempts against a bad UCF pass defense last time out, and the defense gave up 7.1 yards per game to a team that could barely complete a pass up front.

There are enough warning signs to make me back off the sizable favorite, especially in a conference of chaos where I want to be the underdog most of the time.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State Same Game Parlay (SGP)

Texas Tech +12.5

Over 56.5

Jayden Higgins whenever he touches

Caleb Douglas anytime he touches

For everything I’ve said about Texas Tech’s offense being able to move the ball, an equal and opposite amount must be said about its miserable defense. The Red Raiders are giving up 6.6 yards per game overall and have given up 491.8 yards per game in their last four contests.

The Cyclones should score, especially since they have one of the best wide receiver duos in the country in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Higgins has caught six touchdown passes and has the second most PFF received the mark in the Big 12 behind only superstar Travis Hunter.

Tech has surrendered multiple receiving scores in three of its last four games. The Red Raiders rank 104th in EPA per pass and 107th in pass success rate while generating little pressure (126th in front-seven rushing, 82nd in PFF’s passing metric), so Becht he should have time to reveal them.

Caleb Douglas has been a monster in Tech’s last three games, leading the team in targets (30), receptions (22), receiving yards (359) and touchdowns (3). He looks set for a very strong finish to the season, regardless of who is under center.

Learn how to place a bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State odds

Texas Tech vs Iowa State live odds

Texas Tech vs Iowa State Opening Odds

• Texas Tech vs. Iowa State spread out: Iowa State -14.5
• Texas Tech vs. Money Line Iowa State: Texas Tech +450, Iowa State -600
• Texas Tech vs. Iowa State over/under: 57.5

Odds courtesy of him BetMGM.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State spread and over/under analysis

• Both teams have been profitable against the spread lately. Texas Tech is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games while Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in their last six.
• Texas Tech is 13-8 in the previous 22 meetings with Iowa State and has won each of the last two games in the series.
• Both teams tend to Over. Texas Tech is 3-1 O/U in its last four, while Iowa State is 6-3 O/U in its last nine.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State betting trend to know

Iowa State is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games against 12 opponents. Find more college football betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State.

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