Oil News: Crude Breaks 50-Day MA as Middle East Tensions Raise Supply Concerns

Elections and central banks spur market action

Market participants are preparing for a wave of major events. The upcoming US election on November 5 is front and center, while Japan’s election process and three major central bank decisions add complexity to market movements. These events have sparked a rush to the safety of the US dollar, but what does this mean for oil prices? Historical patterns suggest that the strength of the dollar typically depresses commodity prices, but geopolitical tensions could override this traditional relationship. Traders are significantly reducing position sizes, preparing for potential sudden price movements.

Major banks project stable oil prices until 2025

Top financial institutions suggest stability despite current market conditions. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for Brent crude between $70 and $85 a barrel for 2025, while Bank of America targets $75 a barrel — but those forecasts depend on OPEC+ maintaining production discipline. Could Chinese stimulus change this outlook? Analysts suggest a limited impact, but investors are monitoring Beijing’s policy changes for any surprises that could reshape demand patterns.

Technical breakout and geopolitical risk support higher prices

Technical and fundamental factors point to continued upward pressure on prices. Friday’s break above key technical levels opens the door for further gains, especially if tensions in the Middle East persist or escalate. The critical question facing traders: Can the bulls sustain the momentum above the newly conquered resistance level of $71.63? With OPEC+ supply retention providing a solid floor and geopolitical risk premium building, prices appear poised to rise. However, the upcoming series of political events and central bank decisions could quickly change this outlook.