Please, it’s time to quit

At a Liberal party meeting on Wednesday, Trudeau faced further backlash from his caucus, some MPs urging L to decide by October 28 whether he will remain leader. Trudeau responded that he would take time to reflect on their criticism. However, less than twenty-four hours later, he announced his decision to stay. “As a party we have always had strong discussions about the best way forward. We will continue to have them with me as a leader,” Trudeau he stated.

source suggests that Trudeau is planning a major cabinet reshuffle in the coming weeks, though it’s not clear that will ease tensions within his party. Meanwhile, the US election is being closely watched in Canada, as its outcome could affect Trudeau’s status depending on who wins the White House.

Trudeau’s team is losing key players, with four recent federal cabinet ministers announcing that they will not run for re-election. All were first elected in 2015 when Trudeau took office. In totaltwenty-four Liberal MPs now plan to retire, and seven others, including former ministers Marc Garneau, David Lametti and Carolyn Bennett, have resigned since the last election.

Faced with voter fatigue, Trudeau was further ahead weakened last month, when the New Democratic Party (NDP) ended its 2022 agreement to support its minority government in exchange for expanded social programs. That leaves Trudeau uncertain about surviving confidence votes in the House of Commons, where the Liberals hold just 154 of the 338 seats. If 170 opposition MPs vote against the Liberals, the government would fall before its term expires at the end of October 2025, forcing an early general election.

Trudeau recently survived a second motion of no confidence brought by conservatives. Election-seeking Poilievre leads by an average of 19 points nationally, according to various sources survey aggregators. CBC Poll Tracker project Poilievre’s team would win 217 out of 343 seats if the election were held today, with the Liberals far behind with just 61 seats. The Bloc Québécois is projected to win thirty-nine seats, while the struggling NDP would hold twenty-four.

After nearly a decade in power, winning a fourth straight election would require a dramatic shift in momentum for Trudeau. In 2015, he rode a wave of optimism and promised transformative change for Canada.

His government established gender parity in the Cabinet, welcomed refugees – especially Syrians – and immigrants, legalized marijuana, launched a national childcare program and claimed to have set the stage for an ambitious climate agenda. While many of these initiatives were initially welcomed, in 2024 Canadians’ priorities have changed.

InflationTHE the housing crisisand immigration are now top concerns. For the first time in twenty-five years, most Canadians believe the country is admitting too many immigrants. According to one new poll58% of Canadians think immigration rates are too high, up 14 points grow from last year. Between 2022 and 2023, there was an increase of 17 points, meaning that in two years the percentage of Canadians who agree with the statement “there is too much immigration in Canada” more than doubled, from 27 per cent to 58 percent. The last time public sentiment was this high was in 1998.

Poilievre capitalized on this change, boosting conservative support with his populist, anti-establishment rhetoric. He promised to eliminate carbon pricing, address the housing crisis, balance the budget and reduce crime, accusing the Liberals of having “destroyed” the immigration system.

Trudeau acknowledged the difficult times Canadians face in a interview on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. “People are suffering. They have trouble shopping, paying rent and getting gas,” he said, adding cheerfully that voters are considering “a change.” He notably avoided mentioning that his resignation was part of changing voters’ minds.

Although inflation has fallen from a peak of 8.1% in 2022, and the Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates to around 3% by mid-2025 – potentially easing grocery bills and mortgage payments – these improvements may not be enough to boost Trudeau’s prospects. Like many world leaders, he suffered political repercussions from the global pandemic.

Trudeau’s tenure was also marred by scandals which damaged its public image and, like many countries, Canada is living political dealignment and is witnessing the rise of right-wing – and even far-right – movements.

At a time of heightened discontent among workers, the NDP is missing in action and the Tories are making inroads into what should be the NDP voting basefurther strengthening their challenge to the Liberals.

If Trudeau resigns, who could replace him as leader of the Canadian Liberals? One of the party’s biggest problems is the lack of a clear alternative. Several names have floated in Ottawa: Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who recently became a member of the party. special adviser on economic growth. Carney has expressed interest upon entering electoral politics, but did not specify when or in what role. Former British Columbia premier Christy Clark did as well expressed interest in replacing Trudeau if he resigns.

However, none of these candidates seem to offer more appeal than Trudeau. A summer survey by the Angus Reid Institute disclosure that a change of leadership would not significantly reduce the roughly 20-point gap with the Conservatives.

Since collapse of the deal with the New Democratic Party, the Liberal government could fall anytime within the next year. The Conservatives have already announced plans to table motions of no confidence in the House of Commons to trigger an early election. The Liberals will need the support of at least one other party in the House to survive these confidence votes and stay in power.

This instability leaves little room to launch a proper driving run. That’s partly why the liberal caucus hasn’t asked for one yet. “We know we don’t have time for that” said one liberal source.

Liberal MPs admit voter fatigue is nothing new in Canada. In 2015, voters were fed up with Stephen Harper, the Conservative prime minister who was ousted by Trudeau. Similarly, another former prime minister, Brian Mulroney, left office after his approval rating fell beyond repair. Only two prime ministers in Canadian history have won four consecutive elections.

Beyond the challenges of organizing a leadership race, the party would have very little time to present its new leader to the public before the next vote scheduled for October 20, 2025 – or sooner if an election is called earlier. Although Canada traditionally avoids holding elections in the winter because of the weather, some analysts suggest that given the current uncertainty, anything is possible. Perhaps the only thing colder than a Canadian winter will be the reception Trudeau receives if he tries for a fourth term.