California vote props: Polls show swing from progressive measures

California voters appear poised to reject several progressive ballot measures in November, suggesting a shift in the state’s liberal stance that could sway down-ballot congressional races and reflect poorly on Gavin Newsomthe lame-duck governor who is said to have his eye on the White House.

There are five citizen initiatives and five legislative constitutional amendments up for a vote in California this year. The state is famous for its roots in direct democracy, which makes it relatively easy for a citizen or special interest group to gather enough signatures to get their initiative on the ballot.

This year, on the same ballot as the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harriswho began his political career in the Golden State, and former president Donald Trumpvoters will also decide on issues from LGBTQ+ rights to criminal justice reform.

A new statewide poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) suggests that voters in the Democratic stronghold do not agree with some of the progressive policies on the ballot.

The survey did not indicate a major Republican growth in the state, which Trump is almost certain to lose by a wide margin. In the PPIC poll, Harris led Trump by 26 points (59 percent to 33 percent), just shy of President Biden’s 29 wins in the state four years earlier. The difference may be even smaller, given the poll’s sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 points. The two candidates remain separated by razor-thin margins nationally and in key battlegrounds.

But the survey that some Democrats and independents who support Harris for president are poised to vote against liberal ballot measures on the economy and criminal justice reform.

Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s state survey director, said Newsweek on Thursday that while some of the poll results were surprising, the makeup of California allows these ballot measures to have support that some wouldn’t expect to match California’s progressive reputation. Four in 10 Californians identify as liberal, while 3 in 10 identify as moderate and conservative, he said.

“You get all kinds of different results on state propositions that you might consider necessarily Democratic,” he said. “Most Californians are liberal on social and environmental issues and more conservative on public policy and fiscal issues.”

There are two economic proposals late in supportaccording to the survey. Proposition 32, which would raise the state minimum wage to $18 an hour, has support from only 44 percent of likely voters, compared to 54 percent of voters who plan to vote against it.

Even a narrow majority of Democrats — 51 percent to 47 percent — plan to reject the minimum wage referendum, according to the poll.

Baldassare noted that polls show more voters support raising the minimum wage when asked about the issue in theory, but the campaign raised concerns about how the proposal would affect the cost of living and inflation, which has been a major campaign issue during the campaign. recent years, even though the inflation rate has decreased.

Meanwhile, only 42 percent of respondents said they plan to support Proposition 33, which would allow local governments to enact rent control. Fifty-four percent said they would vote against the proposal.

The top ballot measure is Proposition 36, which would allow tougher sentences for certain drug and theft crimes, including mandatory treatment for repeat offenders. Prop 36 received the most support from voters — 73 percent plan to vote for it, while only 25 percent oppose it, the poll found.

These numbers come despite strong opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom linked the tough-on-crime measure to a return to the days of the War on Drugs started by Richard Nixon. Still, voters don’t seem swayed.

Proposition 6, which would eliminate a constitutional provision that allows for the “involuntary servitude of incarcerated persons” — essentially a ban on forced labor in prisons — also received a chilly reception from survey respondents. Forty-one percent said they planned to vote yes, while 56 percent said they were voting no.

This is perhaps the most notable finding of the survey, given that there are no major groups campaigning against the forced labor referendum and it still faces an uphill battle.

However, voters support progressive policies in other areas. The poll found broad support for Proposition 3, a constitutional amendment that would enshrine marriage rights for same-sex couples in the state constitution. Sixty-seven percent of respondents said they planned to vote for it, while 32 percent said they opposed the amendment.

Proposition 4, which would allow $10 billion in climate and environmental bonds, has the support of a majority of voters — 54 percent said they plan to support it, while 42 percent oppose it, according to the poll.

The poll polled 1,646 Californians between October 7th and October 15th.

The Californian’s embrace of more moderate policies on these tax and criminal justice issues mirrors a shift toward the center from Harris as she tries to win over moderate and undecided voters in key battlegrounds.

While Harris established a reputation as a more liberal senator, she shifted toward middle-of-the-road rhetoric on the campaign trail, emphasizing her work as a prosecutor, support for small businesses, and foreign policy credentials.

Polls like this could help change that, Baldassare said.

“It gives you a sense that there are a lot of voters who are in the middle of the political spectrum in California and elsewhere who look at things from an issue perspective, not necessarily partisan politics,” he said.

“These are exactly the kinds of voters presidential candidates are looking for at a time when the nation is deeply divided.”

These ballot measures may also have implications for the race for control Congressaccording to Baldassare.

Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives – 220 seats, compared to 212 for Democrats. The Democrats’ path to changing the House it passes through only a few states, including Californiawhere there are at least 7 competitive races, according to the Cook Political Report.

“For some candidates running in competitive districts nationally or otherwise, this may give them pause for thought about endorsing party-favored propositions,” Baldassare said, noting that Democratic candidates running in competitive races may choose to stay in the middle in the issues in which they see voters. doing the same.

Update 10/125/24 4:45 pm ET: This story has been updated to correct a typo.