The US election will have a big impact on technology

The 2024 presidential election is sure to have far-reaching consequences in many areas – and artificial intelligence is no exception.

EY’s latest technology pulse survey, published in Octoberrevealed that 74% of 503 tech leaders expect the election to affect AI regulation and global competitiveness. Although tech leaders have said they plan to significantly increase investment in AI over the next year, future growth in AI may depend on the outcome of the election.

Respondents believe that the outcome of the election will largely affect regulations related to cyber security/data protections, AI and machine learning and surveillance of user data and content.

“Of course, all of this is closely related to innovation, growth and global competitiveness,” James Brundage, EY’s global and Americas technology sector leader, told TechRepublic. “The US is the world leader in technological innovation, so future technology policy should strike a balance that supports US innovation while putting in place guardrails where they are needed,” such as data privacy, children’s online safety and security national.

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Greater investment in AI

In particular, technology companies will continue to make significant investments in AI regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, according to the survey. However, the outcome may affect the direction of tax, fiscal, tariff, antitrust and regulatory policies, as well as interest rates, mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings and AI regulations, the survey said.

“We were surprised that trade/tariffs were not higher on the minds of these executives,” observed Brundage.

Following a sluggish tech market in 2024, he said the “2025 trajectory is bullish as companies focus on raising capital to invest in growth and emerging technologies like AI.”

Most technology leaders (82%) said their company plans to increase investment in AI by 50% or more in the next year. Over the next year, AI investment will focus on key areas, including AI-specific talent (60%), cybersecurity (49%) and back-office functions (45%).

With an eye on innovation, the majority of tech leaders surveyed plan to allocate resources to AI investments in the next six to 12 months, with 78% of tech leaders reporting that their company is considering divesting non-core assets or businesses as part of their growth. strategy during that period.

Large organizations struggling with AI initiatives

Also surprising to Brundage is that 63 percent of technology leaders report that their organization’s AI initiatives have successfully moved into the implementation phase.

“This number seems high, but several factors could explain it,” he noted. “First, companies may focus on short-term high-hanging fruit AI projects that are easier to implement, have higher success rates, but may not be the opportunities with the highest impact.”

In addition, the use of “quick purchase solutions such as ChatGPT or copilotthat are relatively simple to implement and increase productivity can increase that percentage.” Also, successful implementation “likely means moving from proof of concept (POC) to deployment,” Brundage said, adding that “real challenges such as data quality, scaling, governance and infrastructure still lie ahead.”

Additionally, size matters – the report noted that organizations with more employees find less success in moving AI initiatives into the implementation phase.

Data quality issues (40%) and talent/skills shortages (34%) are the most common reasons for AI initiatives fail to progress to the next stage, according to those who indicated that less than half of their AI initiatives were successfully implemented.

How the election’s impact on artificial intelligence might be felt

Regardless of who takes office in 2025, there could be a continuation of current regulatory and enforcement trends related to AI, given that the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice have been very active and may remain so, Brundage said. . Given that “some legislative proposals are bipartisan … we expect them to move forward in 2025 or 2026,” such as children’s online safety.

But he pointed out that state legislatures and attorneys general have an impact on policy, “so it’s a nuanced playing field. We expect these changes to be measured in years, not months.”

Tech leaders need to realize that the U.S. is facing a new geopolitical environment compared to five to 10 years ago, Brundage said.

“New government industrial policy in the US and around the world is spurring business action – both in the technology sector and in the industries and supply chains that rely on it. These global technology businesses are particularly at the forefront of geopolitics as countries seek to de-risk each other.”

AI capabilities have also become highly competitive and geopolitically significant across the globe, he said. “There is a double race to innovate and regulate here in the US and elsewhere. We see the need to have business models that take into account different regulatory approaches, such as sovereign border models.”

Wanted: The search for AI tech talent is intensifying

As organizations continue to integrate more AI functionality into their businesses, the need to hire AI-specific talent will increase, as will the need to restructure or downsize legacy job functions, according to the survey.

According to the survey, 80% of technology leader respondents anticipate downsizing or restructuring from legacy roles to other in-demand roles, and 77% anticipate an increase in the hiring of AI-specific talent. Additionally, 40 percent of technology leaders said that human capital efforts, such as training, will be at the center of their company’s AI investments next year.

The Impact of AI on National Security and Foreign Policy

Meanwhile, the Biden administration released the first on Thursday National Security Memorandum (NSM) focused on artificial intelligence to ensure that the US continues to be a leader in the development and deployment of AI technologies. The memorandum also prioritizes how the country adopts and uses artificial intelligence while preserving privacy, human rights, civil rights and civil liberties so that the technology can be trusted.

The NSM also calls for the creation of a governance and risk management framework for how agencies implement AI and requires them to monitor, assess and mitigate AI risks related to these issues.