Kansas vs. Kansas Score Prediction Kansas State modeled after expert football

One of college football’s best national rivalries kicks off this weekend when No. 16 Kansas State returns home against Kansas on Saturday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model who projects scores and picks winners.

Kansas State went 3-1 in the Big 12 this season and is on a three-game winning streak, scoring 118 points and moving into third place in a competitive race for the conference title.

Kansas went 1-3 in conference play after dominating Houston last week, and despite its poor record thus far, has lost league games by a combined 19 points.

What do the analytics suggest when the Jayhawks and Wildcats meet in this Big 12 clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Kansas and Kansas State compare in this Week 9 college football rivalry game.

As expected, the models give the Wildcats a notable advantage over the Jayhawks this week.

SP+ predicts Kansas State to beat Kansas by a projected score of 35 to 23 and win the game at an expected margin of 11.6 points in process.

The model provides the Wildcats a 77 percent chance of the victory against the Jayhawks.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? So far, SP+ is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 winning percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Kansas State is a favorite with 9.5 points against Kansas, according to lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And he set the money line odds for Kansas State at -330 and for Kansas at +260 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a host of bettors who are siding with the Wildcats, according to the latest consensus spread picks for the game.

Kansas State gets 65 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

Other 35 percent betting draft kansas will either win in an upset or keep the score under 10 points in a loss.

Most other analytical models also favor the Wildcats to take down the Jayhawks this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Kansas State is projected to win the game by a majority 75.2 percent of the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Kansas as the expected winner the rest of the way 24.8 percent of sense.

Kansas State is designed to be 10 points better than Kansas on the same field in both teams’ current lineups, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Kansas State was 23 points better than their opponents when playing at home this season.

And over the past three games, the Wildcats have proved it 17.3 points better than the opponents.

Kansas is 4.7 points worse than the teams they play when they go on the road in 2024.

But the Jayhawks are 4.3 points better than opponents in their last three games, an average that was boosted by last week’s dominant win.

Kansas State is third among Big 12 teams with a 36.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Wildcats an overall win prediction 9.9 games this season.

Kansas is second-worst in the Big 12 with a 9.1 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game in 2024.

And it has a total earnings projection of 4 games this year.

When: Saturday, October 26
Time: 19:00 Central
TV: ESPN2 Network

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Game odds are periodically updated and subject to change.

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