Harris relies on college-educated voters

College-educated voters have flocked to the Democratic Party over the past few election cycles. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee for three consecutive elections, has gained support among black men, Latinos and non-college-educated voters.

But Democratic strategists say Americans with college degrees, who vote and donate at high rates, could help Harris win the presidency.

“They are incredibly reliable voters,” said Harris campaign pollster Molly Murphy, who added that Harris’s warnings about Trump appeal to this group in particular. “These messages — warning of the dangers of a second Trump term when it comes to our national security and even our homeland security, arming the military against American citizens — are things that resonate with college-educated voters — but not there are only those. voters.”

Polls show Harris and Trump in a static, deadlocked race with just 10 days until Election Day. The candidates are vying for a small share of undecided voters in seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — where polls show the two are statistically tied.

Part of the Harris campaign’s strategy in the last stretch of the election is to increase voter turnout among college-educated women, who have proven to be a key base of Democratic voters in the past few elections — especially in the 2022 midterms , when Democrats beat expectations. But the campaign also believes that a swathe of college-educated men are still persuadable. Murphy said polls show that the dangers of a Trump presidency remain one of the biggest concerns of this group, that they are less likely to be affiliated with a single political party and are getting involved late in the political process.

Harris, who has run a historically compressed campaign since replacing Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket less than four months ago, has spent his first weeks on the campaign trail talking about pocket money and abortion and focusing he was about to present himself to voters who knew little. about her.

But her pivot in the final weeks of the campaign to spend most of her time warning that Trump is disaffected and unfit for the presidency is informed by domestic polling that shows such messages could help boost voter turnout undecided, especially those with university degrees. As part of that effort, she singled out former Trump officials, including his former chief of staff, John F. Kelly, warning of the dangers they pose to the nation. Murphy said the campaign’s focus on Trump is also important to other groups of voters, including non-college-educated voters, but that those groups also care about the economy, health care and other issues.

In national polls, Harris leads by 19 percentage points among college graduates, slightly above President Joe Biden’s 17-point margin in exit polls and comparable sources in 2020. Among voters without a college degree, Trump leads by nine points – slightly larger than his. five point margin in 2020.

Some Democrats were concerned about Harris’ numbers with other key groups of voters who helped propel Barack Obama and Biden to the Oval Office. Harris holds a 24-point lead among non-white voters, far smaller than Biden’s 47-point lead in 2020. Polls revealing black and Hispanic voters have Harris leading by an average of 59 points , compared to Biden who wins the caucus by 81 points. points in post-election sources. And Harris holds a narrow five-point lead with Hispanic voters, compared to Biden’s 29-point lead.

In 2020, college graduates made up 35 percent of voting-age citizens, but 40 percent of registered voters and 42 percent of general election voters, according to the Census Bureau’s voter turnout survey. Education is also one of the strongest predictors of voter turnout, with college graduates turning out to vote at much higher rates than those with high school diplomas or less.

Democrats’ growing strength with college-educated voters, who tend to have higher incomes than people without college degrees, also means Democrats can raise more money in up-and-down races, strategists said.

“The migration of higher-income, higher-educated voters from the Democratic Party will not only be very significant in terms of voters in battleground states. Their money helps supercharge all of our campaigns across the country,” said Simon Rosenberg, a top Democratic operative. “This is among the most important things to happen in American politics in years, because Democrats are not used to living in a world where we dramatically outnumber Republicans.”

Harris will deliver what she sees as her closing argument to the American people on Tuesday in a speech at the Ellipse in Washington, where Trump spoke just before the Jan. 6 uprising. The Harris event, which the campaign hopes will overtake the news cycle more than visiting another battleground state, is also intended to appeal to college voters and others’ fears about a second Trump term, officials said the campaign.

On January 6, 2021, Trump held a rally at the Ellipse where he urged his supporters to march on the US Capitol as Congress finalized the results of the presidential election. In his speech, Trump told the crowd to “fight” for him and “make your voices heard peacefully and patriotically.” Later, a mob stormed the building, delaying Congress proceedings. More than 1,400 people have been charged federally in connection with the attack.

Harris’ speech will focus on more than Trump, according to a campaign official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to anticipate remarks that are not yet final. Also, the vice president will present a contrast between what her first term as president might look like and what the former president’s second term might bring. She plans to position herself herself as defender of national security and president for all Americans and argues that Trump is a unique danger to the country.

In recent weeks, Harris has held campaign events in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania with former congresswoman Liz Cheney (R-Wisconsin). Cheney, who endorsed the vice president — the first time, she said, she had endorsed a Democrat — and worked to convince other Republicans to cross party lines and vote for Harris.

“What we’re seeing is a seismic shift for Republicans — college-educated voters, especially white voters with degrees, have been reliable for Republicans for decades, but now they’re turning away from Trump and his toxicity,” Jim Messina, who drove. Obama’s 2012 campaign said in a statement. “These are not casual voters; these are people who show up at every election, and the numbers tell the story.”

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Scott Clement contributed to this report.