Alabama vs Missouri Football Prediction: What the Analytics Say

SEC football returns this weekend as No. 15 Alabama welcomes No. 21 Missouri in a battle of conference teams looking to avoid another costly loss on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest game prediction based on an analytical model that picks the winners.

Alabama is 2-2 in SEC play after a loss at Tennessee last week and looks to avoid falling below .500 in conference play heading into this home tilt against the top-ranked Tigers.

Mizzou improved to 2-1 in the conference, but needed a comeback effort to defeat Auburn at home, inspired by quarterback Brady Cook, who left the game with an injury, went to the hospital, he returned, warmed up in the training facility and returned to action to rally his team to a victory.

Ahead of this week’s game, we look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates each NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a predicted scoring margin per game.

So far, the mocks are giving the Crimson Tide a sizable advantage over the Tigers at home.

Alabama is projected to win the game in a landslide 82.5 percent of the most recent match team simulations.

That leaves Missouri as the expected winner of the rest 17.5 percent of sims

In all, the Crimson Tide came out ahead in 16,500 of the index simulations, while the Tigers edged Bama in the other 3,500 of the predictions.

The mark gives the Tide a double-digit lead over Mizzou in scoring.

Alabama is projected to be 13.9 points better than Missouri on the same field in the current composition of the two teams, according to the latest forecast of the model.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread for this game.

That’s because Alabama is one 13.5 points favourite against Missouri, according to FanDuel Sportsbook lines.

FanDuel lists the total a 54.5 points by game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the money line odds for Alabama -550 and by Missouri a +400 to win directly.

So far, a slight majority of bettors are giving the Tigers a shot against the Crimson Tide, according to the latest consensus spread picks for the game.

Missouri is catching up 55 percent of bets to win the game outright in an upset or keep the score below the 13.5 point line.

the other 45 percent Betting project Alabama will beat Missouri and cover the spread, winning by at least 2 touchdowns.

Alabama is fourth among SEC teams with a 44.5 percent chance to qualify for the college football playoffs, based on FPI metrics.

This model gives the Tide a total win prediction 9.2 games this season

Missouri is eighth in the conference with a 16 percent chance at the 12-team playoff.

And he will win 8.7 games this season, according to index calculations.

The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics such as results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not by talent order as in other rankings, but by projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. State of Iowa
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. army
24. marine
25. Vanderbilt

–

Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | Teams

Follow the college football campus: bookmark | Classifications | selections