Flames prospect Samuel Honzek is defying the odds

Despite being a first-round pick, after the way Sam Honzek’s season went down last year, many would have avoided the term “NHL ready.” Still, the forward left NHL club Calgary Flames off the field and has played on the front line alongside Nazem Kadri to start the year.

Today, I’ll outline Honzek’s path to being an immediate NHL player and assess what the future may hold for the young prospect.

For a top-20 NHL draft pick, forwards are expected to find elite consistency and increase their point totals more than ever if they are sent back to junior for their Draft+1 season ( D+1). For example, if a player had 20 goals and 40 assists for 60 points in 68 WHL games during his draft year, he could be expected to reach 30+ goals and 75+ points (at least) in their D+1 season, depending on individual standards for those athletes and taking into account things like their junior team situations. In Honzek’s case, his D+1 season consisted of injuries, playing on a middling team with a new coach and a significant drop in production, going from 1.3 points per game (P/GP) in 2022-2023 to 0.94 P. /GP in 2023-2024 (about 20 points difference for a full 68 game season).

When evaluating Honzek’s two years in North America, he has played just 56% of the possible WHL regular season games and did not have the statistical support to automatically guarantee an NHL position. However, Honzek’s determination and work last year to get back to health eventually led to a surprise spot on the Calgary Flames’ opening night roster.

“Sam Honzek is another prime example of how stats alone don’t tell a prospect’s story enough. Some Flames fans were calling him out because he didn’t score much last year, but he struggled against injuries in a bad team with a new manager his true talent was being hindered” (Derek Neumeier)

Notably, Samuel Honzek is one of 10 players in the 2023 NHL Draft to play in NHL games (as of October 15, 2024), despite being drafted at No. 16. Additionally, 9 players selected above Honzek have yet to play for their respective NHL teams. This is a significant achievement for the young striker.

Additionally, of all WHL forwards ranked in the Top-64 of the 2023 NHL Draft, Honzek is the only such player (6’4″ forward):

• 5’10” generational player.
• 6’2″ versatile player.
• 5’10” playmaker.
• Scorer 5’11”.
• 6’2” offensive lineman.
• 6’1″ outside puck player.
• 5’11” offensive grinder.
• 5’11” offensive player.

Calgary’s opportunity to scout the WHL compared to other hockey leagues around the world plus the unique type of player Honzek possesses (1st round size + skill) must have been intriguing both from a from the 2023 draft as well as from a 2024 NHL training camp standpoint.

When considering modern hockey, offensive-oriented smaller forwards sometimes falter when certain tight game control situations occur, such as winning board battles, competing “under the point” (the lower half of the offensive zone) and be an effective presence in front of the net. . For players looking to crack NHL rosters, if you can’t compete physically without the puck and can’t dominate space with the puck as a rookie, the future in the NHL sometimes looks bleak at first glance.

Honzek can compete “under the point” and we saw that in his first games with NHL Calgary, crashing the net off the puck, focusing his game on being in high-danger spots ready to receive passes and be a teammate support in battles

It seems that there are more and more highly skilled forwards in the ~5’11” range, which leads to players like Honzek being classified as potential market inefficiencies at the forward position (combination of significant size and skill Based on Calgary’s analysis of all the prospects available at No. 16, they felt Honzek’s unique combination of skill + size was harder to find outside of the draft and selected a player who , less than 2 years after being drafted, he was playing in NHL games.

This is reminiscent of the acquisitions of Kevin Bahl and Artem Grushnikov, where Calgary is looking to find players who offer skill (skating, puck skills, etc.) but can also compete physically when the game becomes “tight control.” I could imagine the “who would you rather have in the playoffs” conversations going down when the Flames were considering who to draft at No. 16 in 2023, and the 6’4″ Honzek was their answer.

Honzek could be destined for the American Hockey League (AHL) this season, as he is eligible for the AHL as a player born in 2004 and will soon turn 20 years old. The AHL may be the best for Honzek’s first year of pro hockey, as the WHL may not be enough of a challenge for a player who made the NHL’s opening night lineup at age 19 . He originally predicted Honzek would return to the Vancouver Giants, where players like Cameron Schmidt could be dynamic linemates to help develop Honzek’s game as a junior. If Honzek keeps his place in the NHL and ends up staying with the Flames all year (playing on a team that is currently beating their division rivals night after night), he could foresee an up-and-down season, a where young players usually need to mature mentally and physically.

Fortunately for the former WHL captain, Honzek seems to have a good head on his shoulders and is a step ahead of most 19-year-olds in the physical maturity department, which may allow him to stick around better for a first pro season rather than younger rookies. Another summer of strength training could help the player become more assertive at the NHL level, but I want to focus on celebrating Honzek’s accomplishments in making the NHL and his ability to bounce back from a plight of hockey last year instead of pointing out what is needed. done next summer.

The important thing for Samuel Honzek is that he has been trusted to play NHL minutes as a 19-year-old and has shown habits that could translate to NHL production down the road. I’m excited to see what the future holds, regardless of whether Honzek plays 9 or 79 NHL games this season. He hasn’t necessarily looked a step back from his teammates or opponents, and more opportunities for professional North American hockey should be rewarding for the young player looking to prove his worth to Flames management and fans.

Has Samuel Honzek convinced you of his future in the NHL?