What if voters aren’t as polarized as we think?

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What if voters aren’t as polarized as we think?: In recent years, electoral initiatives have primarily been a tool of the left. Voters in several states have approved measures to raise the minimum wage, legalize marijuana, and expand Medicaid. This year, abortion rights measures will likely pass in most, if not all, of the 10 states where they are on the ballot.

All of these measures were successful in red states as well as blue. “We’re moving forward with this fascinating state that I think one week will support reproductive rights for Missouri women, but we’re also going to elect people who don’t,” the Kansas City mayor said. Quinton Lucasa democrat.

But this year, there is a possible counter-trend. Polls suggest California voters will not only pass a crime measure that would toughen penalties for retail theft and drug offenses, but pass it with overwhelming support. They also appear likely to reject measures that would allow local governments to impose rent controls and raise the minimum wage from $16 to $18 an hour. Meanwhile, Democrats look certain to easily carry the state in the presidential and U.S. Senate votes.

Some of that has to do with the quirks of California’s initiative system, says Craig Burnett, a political scientist at Hofstra University who studies ballot measures. California offers a relatively simple process for putting questions on the ballot, while its active initiative industry is able to generate a lot of money for proposals on both sides of the aisle. If the tougher-on-crime measure passes, it wouldn’t be the first time California voters have backed an apparently conservative approach while overwhelmingly electing Democrats.

But why is that? Why do voters act one way when it comes to specific questions and differently when it comes to choosing candidates?

A series of national surveys by YouGov found that voters are more likely to support Vice President Kamala Harris’ positions on these issues. Nearly 90 percent of Harris’ policies are supported by more than half of voters, compared to 48 percent of former President Donald Trump’s. However, polls show the presidential race tied.

All sorts of explanations are suggested. Voters may not be well informed about a candidate’s actual positions. One or two issues might be a problem for them, even if they agree with a candidate on a number of other things. When it comes to voting for most offices, especially the president, voters will consider intangible qualities like character and personality. There isn’t a ton of ticket splitting these days, but Trump is narrowly ahead in polls in both Arizona and North Carolina, even as his ostensible henchmen fare poorly in the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests in those states respectively.

The tribal sense of identity that isolates most voters into Republican or Democratic camps doesn’t mean they don’t have a mix of opinions when it comes to certain issues. The past two years have shown that there are Republicans who support abortion rights, while crime is an issue that cuts across party lines, with several Democratic mayors supporting the California measure.

“There’s a big narrative out there that we’re very polarized, and we are,” Burnett says. “But if you analyze and look at the things people actually care about, we’re not as polarized as we think. Voters have conflicting thoughts and opinions.”

Ricardo Ramirez Buxeda/TNS

Fired prosecutors are trying to make a comeback: Florida has been one of the leading preemption states over the past decade or so, passing numerous state laws that prevent cities and counties from drawing their own courses on a variety of issues. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has taken this approach — that all local politics can be overcome — to a higher level in the past two years byremoval of a pair of elected prosecutors from the office.

DeSantis argued that he was not doing his job by refusing to enforce all laws or being too soft on crime. Now both prosecutors are seeking their old jobs in next week’s election — Andrew Warren in Hillsborough County, which includes Tampa, and Monique Worrell in the circuit that includes Orange and Osceola counties. Although Democrats remain outraged that DeSantis removed elected officials from their posts, Republicans have largely supported his decision.

Of the two, Worrell seems to be in better shape. She raised twice as much money as Andrew Bain, her DeSantis-appointed replacement. But Bain, who is running as an independent, could benefit from a curious move from the Republican side. Seth Hyman, who won the GOP nomination in August, dropped out of the race a few weeks later. The candidate who loses in the primary process filed, invoking a conspiracy that this was a setup to increase Bain’s chances. Still, Democrats’ sizable registration advantage in the circuit should be enough to propel Worrell to victory, assuming a majority of the vote splits along party lines.

In January, a federal appeals court found that DeSantis violated Warren’s First Amendment rights in his dismissal from office. However, the court did not order his reinstatement. He will have to win his job back at the polls, running against Republican Suzy Lopez, the DeSantis appointee. His path is a little more difficult than Worrell’s. In Hillsborough, as in Florida as a whole, Republicans won records. The Democratic margin there has shrunk to about 5,000, out of a total of nearly 1 million registered voters.

Warren could still win — as she has twice before. Democratic turnout collapsed in Florida in 2022, but it’s unlikely to be as bad this year with an abortion rights measure on the statewide ballot. However, he doesn’t have much cushion in the registration numbers.

And the reality is that even if both Worrell and Warren regain their old jobs, nothing will stop DeSantis from suspending them again.