Global Cereal Price Predictions to 2025: Wheat, Barley and Maize

2) Weather patterns: Climate change continues to affect wheat production, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Droughts or heavy rains during the growing season could limit production, driving up prices. Conversely, favorable weather conditions in North America, the EU and Australia could help stabilize prices.

3) Global demand: Increased demand for wheat, particularly in the Middle East, Asia and Africa, will likely keep upward pressure on prices. In addition, the use of wheat in animal feed could contribute to increased demand, especially in regions with declining maize production.

Barley price trends

Barley, which is mainly used for animal feed and beer production, is expected to see a more stable price trend in 2025, ranging from $220 to $260 per metric ton. The main factors shaping the barley market include:

1) Food demand: Demand for barley as a substitute for corn in livestock feed will continue to be an important determinant of prices. If corn prices rise sharply, barley can serve as a more profitable alternative, leading to greater demand and higher prices.

2) Growth of the brewing industry: Global beer production is expected to recover after the pandemic, which could boost demand for barley. The increased need for malting barley could contribute to a moderate increase in prices, especially in Europe and Asia.

3) Production levels: Countries such as Canada, Australia and Ukraine are the main exporters of barley. While favorable weather and increased planting areas could increase supply and moderate prices, any shortfall in production due to climate variability could create supply constraints and increase prices.

Corn market outlook

Maize is one of the most traded commodities worldwide, driven by its use as food, animal feed and biofuel. Corn prices in 2025 are expected to range between $210 and $250 per metric ton, influenced by the following factors:

1) Biofuel policies: Demand for corn-based ethanol in countries such as the US and Brazil will remain an important factor. Any changes in biofuel mandates or incentives could directly affect corn prices. By 2025, a potential increase in biofuel production could boost demand for corn and contribute to higher prices.

2) Weather conditions: As with wheat, corn yields are very sensitive to weather conditions. The United States, China and Brazil, as the largest producers, could see significant yield variations depending on rain patterns, droughts or heat waves.

3) Dynamics of the supply chain: While corn exports from the US, Brazil and Argentina will play a vital role in the global supply chain, the availability of Ukrainian corn could also influence the market. Disruptions in exports from the Black Sea region could contribute to global supply constraints and subsequent price increases.

Ukraine’s impact on world grain prices

Ukraine is a major player in the global grain market and is consistently among the leading exporters of wheat, barley and maize. In 2025, the country’s role will remain crucial, especially for European and Middle Eastern markets.

1) Exports of wheat and barley: Ukraine’s contribution to wheat and barley markets is expected to influence regional prices. If the country’s export capacity is stable, it could help moderate price spikes in these markets. However, any geopolitical tensions or infrastructure challenges could reduce exports, restrict supply and push up prices.

2) Maize supply: Ukrainian corn exports also play an important role in the European market. A strong harvest and efficient logistics could help stabilize global corn prices. Conversely, disruptions in planting, harvesting or shipping could lead to higher prices, especially in regions that rely heavily on Ukrainian corn.

conclusion

The cereal market in 2025 will likely experience moderate price increases, mainly due to geopolitical factors, climate change impacts and changes in global demand. Wheat, barley and corn prices will be driven by both global supply dynamics and regional influences, and Ukraine will continue to be a key player. As the world becomes more interconnected, fluctuations in Ukrainian exports could have widespread implications, particularly for European and Middle Eastern markets. For grain industry stakeholders, close monitoring of geopolitical developments, weather forecasts and policy changes will be essential to navigate the complex market landscape in 2025.