How Israel is preparing for a long regional war

According to a recent report by the economic newspaper The Marker, the Israeli government has asked the Nagel Commission, formed just a couple of months ago to advise on the country’s defense budget, to provide quick conclusions to facilitate the approval of major agreements weapons

It comes as retired General Yossi Kuperwasser, who previously served as the head of research for Israel’s military intelligence division, has pointed to the scale of the challenges facing the country’s military .

In an article in the Israel Hayom newspaper, he noted that Tel Aviv’s strategy is based on “weakening the Iranian axis and eliminating the threat from the north to allow northern residents to return home safely, freeing hostages and eliminating the threat from Gaza to the state of Israel”.

All this implies a long-term war that will require increasing military capabilities.

Estimates by Israel’s central bank indicate that the costs of escalating war with Lebanon and potentially also with Iran will be significant, which is partially reflected in Israel’s increased military spending for the 2024 and 2025.

Although Israel’s war budget has not been released in detail (the central bank releases figures but not the detailed budget), the central bank’s new forecasts give a clue, showing that current spending will increase by about 30 billion shekels ($8 billion) this year, a figure that mainly includes military equipment, ammunition and compensation for reservists for days of service.

This is a modest amount compared to the overall projected costs of Israel’s plans to bolster its military capabilities, as overseen by the Nagel Commission, headed by former national security adviser and retired general Jacob Nagel.

While the details of the commission’s recommendations will remain confidential, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government wants the body to facilitate the urgent procurement of advanced weapons systems.

Massive expenses

The central bank’s estimates are based on the assumption that Israel’s wars in the Middle East will drag on and on until at least the first quarter of 2025. Even before the escalation in Lebanon and Iran , the bank had already concluded that the country’s military spending had exceeded all expectations.

That prompted the central bank to raise its fiscal deficit forecast in Israel’s 2024 budget by 0.6 percent, bringing the total to 7.2 percent of gross domestic product. Israel’s updated military spending this year stands at 130 billion shekels ($35 billion), while the costs of sustained displacement of residents from border areas have risen from three billion to five billion shekels.

In addition, compensation for damaged property since October 7, 2023 has reached 1.5 billion shekels ($404 million).

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Reports indicate that a significant increase in state revenue from local taxes could relieve some of the strain of military spending on the general budget. And none of this explains the next financial aid from the US.

Meanwhile, as the deficit widens, Israel’s finance ministry indicates in its multi-year plan that an additional budget has been allocated to the defense ministry, totaling 83 billion ($22 billion) for the years 2023 and 2024. Of these, 16 billion shekels. they have been used so far, mainly to obtain additional military aid from the US.

The Nagel Commission’s interim report (the final report will be published in December) seeks to establish policy within the current budget framework to optimize the use of existing equipment and ammunition, while enabling arms acquisition agreements.

The war on Israel’s northern front is only one part of its regional plan, backed by the US, to dismantle the axis of resistance and undermine the “unity of fronts” strategy.

His proposed plan to develop Israeli military capabilities, which is long-term and spans several years, is expected to involve an increase in annual spending of at least 30 billion shekels ($8 billion) until 2028 , which could be expanded. However, many financial projections indicate that an annual spending increase of 55 billion shekels ($14.5 billion) is more likely.

Ultimately, it is clear that Israel is moving toward a profound change in the structure of its military, based on long-term wars that align with its regional ambitions. As media reports indicate, the focus will be on both land and naval forces, giving priority to long-range regional combat.

The war on Israel’s northern front is only one part of its regional plan, backed by the US, to dismantle the axis of resistance and undermine the “unity of fronts” strategy. Israel’s primary target is Iran, in an effort to undermine the Tehran regime and neutralize its nuclear and missile programs.

The war in Gaza is expected to continue for a long time, potentially becoming a permanent occupation, based on ethnic cleansing operations in the northern part of the territory. Despite the strength of the Israeli economy and its reserve assets, Tel Aviv is increasingly dependent on US support in military, financial and diplomatic matters.

Any regional war Israel fights will thus become an American one, as Tel Aviv continues to deny the Palestinian cause in an attempt to end it once and for all.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.