NFL Week 8 ‘Thursday Night Football’ Picks Odds

The Vikings head west to face the Rams on Thursday night in an NFC battle that should provide plenty of intrigue.

Two key offensive players are expected to return, with the Vikings getting TJ Hockenson (knee) back on the field for the first time this season and the Rams seeing Cooper Kupp (ankle) in the lineup for the first time since Week 2 .

Let’s dive into the matchup and see where the primetime value of this matchup lies.

Vikings vs. Rams “TNF” Odds

When the Vikings have the ball

Sam Darnold has been much better than expected for the Vikings and has fit perfectly into Kevin O’Connell’s masterful offensive system.

Darnold ranks fifth in the NFL with 8.3 yards per pass attempt, and has been very accurate, ranking third in completion percentage above expectation.

Led by Justin Jefferson, the Vikings are loaded with receiving weapons that look poised to overwhelm the Rams’ secondary.

Los Angeles ranks 26th in defensive EPA against the pass this season, and while the return of cornerback Darious Williams helps, the team’s safeties haven’t kept up in coverage.

The Rams rank 27th in DVOA against the deep ball this season, and Darnold has been the league’s third-most efficient deep ball passer by YPA.

Minnesota should also be able to get its running game going against a Rams defensive front that ranks 27th in tight end yards.

Aaron Jones’ ability to find success on first downs should help keep Darnold out of obvious passing situations against the Rams’ pressure unit, which is the best part of their defense.

When the Rams have the ball

Kupp’s expected return should give a big boost to what has been one of the league’s worst receiving corps in recent weeks.

However, my biggest concern for this matchup is Matthew Stafford’s ability to handle the pressure against Brian Flores’ tight end defense. LA could also bring back WR Puka Nacua (questionable).

The Vikings rank second in blitz rate and first in pressure rate this season, and pass protection has been a major issue for the Rams.

Stafford has been pressured on 26.5 percent of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL, and Los Angeles has yet to find any continuity on the offensive line amid injuries and underperformance from several starters.

Stafford ranks 32nd out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ progress grades under pressure, with five plays worthy of a loss and no big throws.

Kupp’s return helps that dynamic somewhat, but Stafford’s lack of mobility at this stage of his career presents significant problems against this Minnesota passing rush.

The Rams will likely lean on Kyren Williams in the early going to keep Stafford out of obvious passing situations, but the Vikings have the second-best defense in the NFL this season by early EPA.

They also rank first in career defense DVOA.

Final sentence

There’s no doubt that Stafford is a better pure quarterback than Darnold.

However, I would argue that the Vikings have a significant advantage in every other aspect of this game, especially in the trenches.

The Rams struggled to put away a bad Raiders team on Sunday despite a +3 turnover margin, including a defensive touchdown.

Bet on the NFL?

The Vikings won’t be taking too kindly to gifts in this game.

The situational aspect favors the Rams, with the Vikings traveling a week short of a hard-fought divisional loss to the Lions.

Still, the schematic advantages are overwhelming for Minnesota.

I’m backing Kevin O’Connell to lead his team to victory in his first game against his former boss, Sean McVay.

Pick: Vikings -3 (-105, Caesars Sportsbook)

Why trust New York Post betting

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It’s up 84.5 units in both sports for an ROI of 6.27%.