Polymarket power players have poured a ridiculous amount of crypto into a Trump victory, but American voters aren’t even allowed to use the platform

In the final weeks of the presidential race, some polls and prediction markets indicate that we could have Donald Trump back in office in January 2025. For the first time since August, the former president surpassed Vice President Kamala Harris in The economistThe US presidential election statistical model and some other media and political forecasters predict the same outcome.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and PredictIt also show Trump winning the election, but by a much steeper margin than some of the polls. As of Wednesday, Polymarket users have indicated that Trump has a nearly 64% chance of winning the election, with Harris at just under 36%. PredictIt shows Trump in the lead with a 59% chance and Harris at 43%.

But the important thing to remember about Polymarket is that it’s a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, and Americans can’t even trade on the website. As a result, Polymarket is conducting checks to verify that the platform’s main users are based outside the United States, a person familiar with the matter said. Bloomberg.

This could be a key element in cracking the code as to why Trump seems to be so far behind Harris, especially since only a handful of Polymarket users seem to be altering the electoral odds. Earlier this month, four Polymarket accounts began investing millions of dollars in bets that Trump would win the election.

As of Wednesday, Polymarket users Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie had bet a collective $30 million on Trump winning the 2024 presidential election. Another Polymarket user, zxgngl, checked the in recent days, betting more than $5 million in crypto that Trump will take back the Oval Office. With more than $35 million in bets quickly pouring into the presidential election market, it’s no surprise that Trump appears to be pulling ahead.

Alex Marinier, a venture capitalist who was one of the first to invest in Polymarket’s seed round in 2020, said the fortune it’s entirely possible “some big whale is making big bets that move the market”.

“They are either very convinced that Trump will win, or to explicitly sway market sentiment in favor of their candidate in an effort to help their odds of being elected,” Marinier said. “However, if the market believes that this whale bettor is, in fact, too bullish on his candidate, then market forces should return the market odds to the ‘correct’ market levels.”

Are prediction markets accurate?

Some political and betting experts have said that prediction markets are the most accurate way to predict election results because people bet real money on a certain outcome. The way prediction markets work is that traders buy stocks based on the outcome they think is most likely. Stock prices or “odds” rise and fall based on demand, so if the event occurs as the trader predicted, the contract or “bet” will rise to $1 and will pay, or drop to $0 if it doesn’t.

“Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd,” said Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University. the fortuneit’s shawn tully Miller is known for his accurate calls for the 2020 election, and part of his methodology comes from examining prediction markets.

But other experts aren’t so sure, especially since Polymarket only allows users to place bets with cryptocurrency, and American voters aren’t even allowed to participate.

“I couldn’t disagree more with that thesis,” said George Kailas, CEO of stock intelligence tool Prospero.ai. the fortune. “People spend money around what they want to happen, not a strong underlying logic or reason.”

Also, given that Polymarket is crypto-based and Trump is pro-crypto, “it seems to be an indicator that Trump’s supporters are more willing to bet on him than on ‘wisdom,'” adds Kailas.

Of course, said Cliff Young, pollster and president of public affairs at Ipsos the fortune betting markets are “about as good as polls”. While the “2024 Presidential Election Winner” market shows Trump with a large lead over Harris, the “2024 Popular Vote Winner” shows Harris in the lead. Young said that could be because Trump appears to be stronger in swing states.

While “Harris leads the national race, which has tilted the Democrats for decades, swing states define the election,” Young said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com