2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Prediction: Why Chet Holmgren Will Win the Award Over Wembanyama and Davis

Since January, one player has stood out as the NBA’s most dominant individual defensive player: Victor Wembanyama. And while Rudy Gobert won his record-tying fourth Defensive Player of the Year in May, it’s Wemby who stands out on prospect boards as the overwhelming favorite for 2024-25 DPOY honors.

In fact, the second-year Spurs phenom opened the NBA season at -155, which translates to an implied win probability of more than 60 percent. No other player on the board has odds higher than +1100, implying an 8.3 percent chance of winning.

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Sportsbooks have already taken on a huge amount of responsibility from Wemby, so don’t expect the 20-year-old Frenchman’s odds to go up any time soon. As of the opening day of the 2024-25 NBA season, Wembanyama accounted for more than 26 percent of DPOY wagering. This means that more than a quarter of all money wagered on DPOY has gone to Wemby.

However, NBA awards voters don’t care about your bets and there are many variables that make Wembanyama an unreliable bet at these short odds. And viewing any player as a “lock” to win an award before the home stretch of the season seems like a futile prospect.

We take a look at the 2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds at BetMGM and reveal our best bets to become the next DPOY.

2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds

All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized NBA gaming operator.

2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year: Best Bet

Chet Holmgren (+1200)

This is not a hot take; nor is it in any way a disrespect to Victor Wembanyama, who has obviously already established himself as one of the most impressive and versatile shot blockers in the NBA. This is the best recommendation, and we simply cannot recommend Wemby over Chet as the best bet.

On the one hand, betting on a player at -155 or less to win an award is silly — never mind a 20-year-old 7-4 on a bad team. You’re risking $155 for a chance at a $100 profit, then crossing your fingers all season that Wemby doesn’t get hurt and no one else blows up defensively.

The awards are heavily based on narrative, so Wemby has an obvious advantage. He’s the most talked about player not named LeBron James, and there’s a reason the kid ended up as the unanimous Rookie of the Year and then went No. 1 in most fantasy basketball drafts. this year However, voters are watching many factors when deciding who deserves DPOY.

One such factor: is the quality of the defense around the player in question. Gobert was easily the best defender on the best defense in the league last regular season. Wemby was the top defensive player on a team that finished 24th in team defense and won 22 games. Only one DPOY in the 21st century has won DPOY despite his team not finishing in the top 10 in team defense (Marcus Camby, 2007).

The Thunder won a Western Conference-best 57 games last season and allowed an NBA-low 45.2 percent field goal percentage. OKC also ranked in the top 10 in points allowed. And Mark Daigneault’s team improved in the offseason, with Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein.

Holmgren also played in all 82 games last season, while Wemby played in just 71 games despite never suffering a major injury. OKC is a legitimate playoff contender, while San Antonio is projected to once again be one of the worst teams in the NBA.

With a shot block rate of 7.5 percent last season, Holmgren could lead the NBA in blocks this season if he stays healthy and Wemby gets hit.

2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year: Best value bet

Anthony Davis (+2200)

Some will say Gobert here at +2000, but he should turn heads with the stats and highlights to win an NBA-record fifth DPOY. Others will say Bam Adebayo or Evan Mobley, but neither are very flashy defenders and Mobley has Jarrett Allen next to him and will likely cancel him out a bit.

Davis is a perfect value at +2200. He’s easily the best defender on the Lakers, who play in a ton of nationally televised games. He’s flashy with blocked shots and big shutout moments, and even screams for the camera when he makes a clutch hit in a primetime game.

AD has also been surprisingly durable lately. He played in 76 games in 2023-24, his most since the 2017 and ’18 seasons. He finished fourth in DPOY voting last year, also his best finish since 2018, when he finished third in MVP. i DPOY voting.

JJ Redick has said his priorities for the Lakers are to fix the defense, improve offensive rebounding and make more three-pointers. If the box in column A is checked, AD will have his fingerprints all over a vastly improved D that ended 2023-24, allowing the ninth-highest scoring percentage and 14th-highest field goal percentage. These odds give great value.

2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year: Best Sleeper

Herbert Jones (+6600)

As we’ve mentioned many times before, awards are often narrative driven. Cool stories increase the chances of certain players winning. If the Pelicans field a small-ball starting lineup all season and Herbert Jones is the top rotation defender, that’s a story.

If Herb posts block and steal rates of 3.0 percent or higher and consistently shuts down the opposing team’s best player, he’ll get a ton of support from the media. He finished in the top five in DPOY voting last year, and the Pels finished eighth in the West. If NOLA takes a step forward this season and so does Jones, he’s more than a sleeper.

2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year: Best Long Shot

Derrick White (+10000)

White can no longer be considered “undervalued”. Now he’s an NBA champion, an Olympic gold medalist, and in my opinion, one of the best shot blockers on the best defense in the NBA. And he’s a keeper! Another great story!

Marcus Smart won DPOY just a few years ago for the Celtics, becoming the first guard since Gary Payton to take home the award. This was a big thing for DPOY, breaking the collective stereotypical belief that older men win it year after year.

If DWhite racks up many more highlights, Boston remains one of the NBA’s most elite defensive teams, and a couple of other contenders miss at least 65 games or burn out, White could join Smart, Payton and Michael Jordan in the hallowed pool of DPOY guards.