Baltimore Ravens: Unpacking the offense’s historic start

Welcome to the Ravens Reality Check, where we take a look at popular national media interpretations of the Baltimore Ravens and sandbag them to keep them from floating into space.

We’re only seven weeks into the season, but we’ve reached a stage where the hot streak over the 5-2 Ravens is largely being repeated. After a 41-31 win over Tampa Bay, pundits offered variations of: Lamar Jackson is good. Derrick Henry is good. The Ravens offense is good.

I could write about how Jackson is now the MVP favorite, but I’d repeat my own column from last week.

So, for this installment, I’m going to give the sports talking heads a break. To me, the interesting part isn’t that the Ravens are good offensively, but they are how good they are. Some wild numbers give this offense an impressive sense of scale.

1. The Ravens are a top 5 offense…in NFL history

We’re only seven games in, but the Ravens are in a league of their own offensively compared to their NFL peers: first in yards, points, rushing and red zone percentage (sixth in passing). The best comparisons to this offense come from the record books.

FS1’s “Breakfast Ball” released a telling chart showing, through seven games, the Ravens are second in rushing yards (6.18) in the decades-old Super Bowl era. They are fourth in rushing yards per game (210.9) and sixth in total yards per game (461.4). His rushing yardage differential (plus-142.4) is by far the best in NFL history.

Honestly, just take a second to let all these numbers sink in. The Ravens’ start under offensive coordinator Todd Monken sets them up to have one of the best offenses around. never.

This was mentioned on Jonas Shaffer and Paul Mancano’s red-eye edition of The Banner Ravens Podcast, but the Ravens are gaining 7.2 yards per play, an outrageous number. The NFL record holder is the 2000 Rams, part of a three-year run known as “The Greatest Show on Turf,” who averaged 6.98 yards per play. The only other modern offense in the discussion is the 2018 Chiefs, who posted 565 points in the regular season (third-highest in NFL history) en route to a Super Bowl.

FTN’s Aaron Schatz noted that the Ravens have the fourth-highest offensive DVOA in history to this point in the season, trailing only the 2007 Patriots and 1998 Denver Broncos, which is pretty good company.

On Tuesday, there was a lot of work to be done on where to place the Ravens in the NFL pecking order right now because they are 5-2, lost to the undefeated Chiefs and the defense continues to struggle against the pass. But as FS1’s Danny Perkins said, what the Ravens do on offense is simply unmatched by anyone today.

“It’s no disrespect to say they’re better than the Chiefs or better than the Lions, because they’re all-time numbers,” he said.

It gets interesting when you try to gauge how the Ravens’ next competition will influence their run in the record books. Of the team’s remaining 10 games, five are against top-10 DVOA defenses, including the Broncos (3rd), Chargers (8th), Texans (2nd) and two games against the Steelers (10th).

It’s certainly a tough road and Baltimore will need to stay healthy, but the hot start already has the Ravens flying in rarefied air. Maybe we should start thinking about nicknames – the “Pick your poison” offense doesn’t resonate enough.

2. Lamar Jackson continues to carve his name among the greatest … passers in the NFL

tired: Lamar Jackson reminds us of Michael Vick.

Wired: Lamar Jackson reminds us of Peyton Manning.

Jackson had his fifth career game with at least five passing touchdowns and no interceptions on Monday night, tying him with Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. Only Tom Brady (8) and Drew Brees (8) have more performances of that caliber. Jackson has 84 career starts. Everyone else in this paragraph has at least 200.

Jackson’s passing success (he’s thrown 15 touchdowns against just two picks this season) drew some comparisons to Hall of Famer Manning and his mid-career Super Bowl breakthrough in “Get Up!” of ESPN.

It’s refreshing to see that some commentators aren’t going down the same path of only comparing Jackson to other black quarterbacks and instead expanding the pool to all quarterbacks, because frankly, that’s the territory he’s in. He’s on pace to throw for nearly 4,400 yards and run for more. 900 yards: No NFL QB has ever thrown for more than 4,000 yards and rushed for 1,000. His passer rating is a league-high 118.0.

That also goes with Jackson’s absurd 23-1 record against NFC opponents, which was helpfully charted by stats site Dorktown.

Frankly, we’re running out of credible comparisons for Jackson’s start this year. It just hasn’t been done this way before.

3. Derrick Henry might have the best career season … of his career.

This week’s theme is how the Ravens offense isn’t worth comparing to its peers, just history. Henry is first in rushing (873), first in rushing yards (935), first in rushing yards per attempt (6.5), first in rushing and receiving touchdowns (10), etc., etc. . (If you haven’t checked out Jonas’ research on Henry’s stiff arms, you should.)

In this case, Henry’s production thus far compares best to his own personal benchmarks.

Henry was the 2020 AP Offensive Player of the Year on the strength of 2,027 rushing yards, the fifth-most in NFL history. Henry has a chance to break his own water mark, thanks in part to a 17-game schedule (his record was set at 16 games). He is averaging 124.7 yards per contest, just a hair below his 2020 average of 126.7, which would put him on pace for 2,120 yards, a new single-season rushing record.

Now we know that probably won’t happen for a variety of reasons, whether it’s Henry hitting a cold game or the coaches cutting back on his reps as the playoffs approach. But it’s a huge tribute to Henry and this Ravens offense that he has an outside chance of putting together a better age-30 season than the one he put together at age 26.

One key: His yards before contact average is 4.2, which is easily his career best (previous high 2.5). Another very interesting comparison: Henry already has 10 carries of 25 yards or more in just seven games. In 2020, he had 11 such runs all season.

Baltimore has gotten the best of its home run hitting ability, even if Henry complained last night that he couldn’t score on his 81-yard run.