Timberwolves vs Lakers NBA Prediction, Picks & Odds

The NBA saw fit to unofficially pass the torch in tonight’s season opener, sending Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves to face LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.

Whether Ant is truly “next” or not will depend on a lot more than tonight’s outcome, but my Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions will center on him, regardless.

Learn more in my NBA picks for Tuesday, Oct. 22, and be sure to check out our favorite Timberwolves vs. Lakers fixtures!

Timberwolves vs Lakers Prediction

A little about Bronny

So you want to bet on Bronny James tonight?

Well, you can’t.

As of Tuesday afternoon, no major sportsbook offers a Bronny bet of any kind other than DraftKings which lets you bet on how many points he and his dad will combine.

Note: This accessory bet carries more juice than LeBron’s point bet alone.

This will be a close game, so the Lakers won’t be looking at the 15th on their bench for minutes. If Bronny James plays, it will be like a PR move and so those few seconds would cost sportsbooks all the Under bets placed on Bronny James props. So they are smart enough not to offer them.

This is the difference between a prop night bet and an all season futures bet as Bronny is doing too much to win Rookie of the Year.

Sportsbooks were happy to offer this because they are confident of this win. They will not offer these prop bets as Bronny Unders would incur the massive risk that would pay out every time Bronny played a possession with no other viability.

My best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 2.5 Made Three (-137 at Caesars)

The best odds available in your region

My analysis

When the Minnesota Timberwolves traded for Rudy Gobert two years ago, the easy assumption was that their offense would need to space out more to avoid driving into a crowded lane. Paradoxically, Anthony Edwards’ 3-point rate plummeted, hitting 48.6% of his shots from deep the year before Gobert arrived, but just 37.4% and 34 .0% in the two subsequent seasons.

It makes some sense. With Gobert down, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid had to space the floor, so the perimeter was a little more crowded than before Gobert’s arrival. Towns spent more time inside and there was a less lethal shooter around the arc.

If we’re paying more attention, we might have seen it coming. That first preseason under Gobert, Edwards hit 32.4 percent of his shots from deep, a massive drop from the previous regular season that may have portended the slump when the games mattered.

In addition, Edwards had a directive to draw more fouls, establishing himself as a superstar. One part of it has become clear: Edwards is a superstar.

Maybe it’s the absence of Towns. Perhaps Edwards has found a new sensation from the depths. Maybe he was just messing around in the preseason. But even if it was the last piece, Edwards’ shot distribution this preseason needs to be considered.

Ant made 65.8% of his field goals from deep.

Even if it was playing in the preseason, that rate is significantly higher than any other preseason. He sat at 39.8% last year, and his rookie preseason numbers finished at 52.8%.

Edwards emphasized shooting from deep this preseason. Logic says there was a reason.

The preseason foreshadowed a change in focus the last time the Timberwolves remade their roster. Will probably do it again now.

Ant is too dynamic when driving downhill to make two-thirds of his shots from deep this season, but he will spend more time behind the arc. That will be an advantage for a shrewd bettor when they take on the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.

Location of the same game between Timberwolves and Lakers (SGP)

Anthony Edwards Over 2.5 made three

Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 assists

Timberwolves money line

The Timberwolves have long coveted Donte DiVincenzo. When the Knicks finally included him in trade talks, moving Towns was no longer a concern.

Minnesota quickly put the ball in DiVincenzo’s hands, running up the middle 6.9 assists per 36 minutes in the preseason. He has taken the lead as Mike Conley’s primary backup over Nickeil Alexander-Walker or rookie Rob Dillingham.

DiVincenzo’s pace will slow down with Conley playing more when the plays really matter, but he’ll still be asked to move the ball more often than anyone on the roster, often to Edwards as he sets up a 3-pointer.

Minnesota is a deeper team in both high-end talent and actual depth than Los Angeles. If this game were six weeks from now, the Timberwolves would likely be favored by a bucketload. We take advantage of this value created by the opening season buzz.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Timberwolves vs Lakers odds

Timberwolves vs Lakers live odds

Get the latest NBA Timberwolves vs Lakers odds.

Timberwolves vs Lakers starting odds

• Propagation: Minnesota +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
• Moneyline: Minnesota -105 | Los Angeles -115
• Above/below: More than 224.5 | Below 224.5

Timberwolves vs Lakers breakdown and Over/Under analysis

• That spread opened in mid-August with sports betting torn over who should be favored, some leaning toward the Lakers by 1.5 points, others toward the Timberwolves by one.
• When Towns was traded about a month ago, Minnesota held firm as a 1.5-point favorite, a number that rose to -2.5 last week before settling back to -1.5.
• The total opened at 224.5 and held fairly steady until the last week, dropping to 223.5 and then falling to 219.5 on Monday and 218.5 on Tuesday.
• The total rebounded aggressively yesterday, back to 222.5.

Timberwolves vs Lakers trend

Los Angeles has gone 0-6 straight up and against the spread in season openers during the LeBron James era. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. lakers

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