What to expect from Japan’s October 27 election, Asia News

TOKYO — Japan’s general election on Sunday (October 20) will be a test for new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is seeking to consolidate his position at the head of a scandal-plagued party.

His bid to call snap elections after winning a closely-fought contest last month to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could backfire in a smooth election, with opinion polls showing the party could concede seats to the opposition

Here are some of the key factors to consider:

What is at stake?

Ishiba inherited a fractured party struggling to shake off a scandal over undocumented funds after his predecessor Fumio Kishida removed tainted ministers, dissolved influential factions and retired in a bid to regain public trust.

But Ishiba still seems to be fighting an uphill battle.

While some polls predict the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito will retain their majority, a weekend poll by the Asahi newspaper showed they may be in trouble, with the LDP potentially losing 50 of the 247 seats it now holds.

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If Ishiba fails to achieve his own goal of retaining a majority for the ruling coalition, questions are likely to be raised about his ability as prime minister at a time of economic uncertainty and rising tensions with neighbors China, Russia and Korea from the North

What are the main parties?

The LDP has ruled Japan for almost the entire post-war era and has a majority in the 465-seat lower house. Its longtime coalition partner is Komeito, a party backed by a large secular Buddhist group that has often provided crucial campaign support to the LDP.

Although the LDP’s popularity hit a low of 25.5% in June, the lowest since it regained power in 2012, it remains the most popular party in a fragmented political landscape, with the support of 35.1% of respondents in a mid-October survey. public broadcaster NHK.

While the LDP still has strong support, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is making inroads. The Asahi poll estimated that the CDPJ could win up to 140 seats in the election, down from 98.

What are the main problems?

The economy and inflation are critical for voters, the NHK poll showed, with the slush fund scandal also a concern.

In a sign of the pain of the rising cost of living, food and daily necessities topped the list of items respondents said they increased spending on compared to a year ago, a quarterly survey by Bank of Japan in early October.

Ishiba has told ministers to come up with a new economic package to cushion the blow to households from the rising cost of living.

The opposition CDPJ has announced plans to increase social spending, including free university education.

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