Opioid Addiction Market to Reach $2.4 Billion in 8MM by 2033

The opioid addiction market in the top eight markets (8MM: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and US) is poised to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of l ‘1.8% from $2 billion in 2023 to $2.4 billion in 2033, according to GlobalData’s recently published report, Opioid Addiction: Assessing and Forecasting Opportunities.

This growth will be driven by an increase in the total number of opioid addiction cases treated during the forecast period. In addition to increasing treatment rates, diagnosed prevalence rates will also grow. In the US, diagnosed prevalence is projected to increase in all patient segments with opioid addiction (mild, moderate, and severe opioid use disorder (OUD), as well as opioid withdrawal syndrome (OWS)), and for the rest of 8MM, the diagnosed prevalent cases are expected to increase in all severities of OUD. Growth in the opioid addiction market will also be driven by the introduction of four late-stage products: cannabidiol, mazindol controlled release (CR), probenecid and TRV-734.

The standard of care for OUD is medication-assisted therapy, in which first-line treatment is methadone and buprenorphine, which are synthetic opioids that act as mu-opioid receptor agonists. Methadone and buprenorphine are classified as Schedule II and III substances because of their abuse potential. Naltrexone, a mu receptor antagonist, is used less frequently and is not a controlled substance. Both buprenorphine and naltrexone can cause rapid withdrawal if not dosed correctly, as they can displace opioids from receptors in dependent individuals. Given these risks, there is an unmet need for effective non-opioid treatments that do not target the mu receptor and that can replace opioids as first-line therapies.

Of the four late-stage pipeline products, three (cannabidiol, mazindol CR and probenecid) are non-opioids. Cannabidiol and mazindol CR are expected to be used as potential adjunctive treatments in addition to the standard of care, driving an increase in the OUD market, but are unlikely to become first-line OUD treatments. Probenecid is indicated for the treatment of OWS and is expected to take market share from existing OWS agents. Therefore, the need for first-line non-opioid treatment alternatives remains.

GlobalData forecasts that late-stage pipeline products could generate combined sales of approximately $171.4 million by 2033 at 8MM. GlobalData also predicts that the most promising pipeline product will be Trevena Inc’s TRV-734, which is indicated for the treatment of OWS and has the potential to see strong uptake due to its position as a partial agonist of the mu-opioid receptor. This means it has the potential to cause partial effects of opioids, but not the full effect, which could limit some of the distressing side effects and potentially prevent withdrawal associated with existing opioid-based treatments. GlobalData predicts that TRV-734 could generate global sales of approximately $77.6 million by 2033.

While the global opioid addiction market is expected to experience growth through 2033, the continued erosion of generics will be a major barrier. Generic erosion is expected to be particularly significant in the US opioid addiction market. In 2023, the US accounted for the largest opioid addiction market, accounting for 74.1% of 8MM sales, owing to its largest population of opioid addicts and the high price of medicines in the country.