Allan Lichtman with a nearly perfect forecasting record predicts Harris to win

By Arunesh SinhaWashington DC (USA), Oct 14 (ANI): Noted American historian and political scientist Allan Lichtman, who has an accurate track record in forecasting the US presidential elections, has predicted that the country will have the his first female president with Kamala Harris. to beat Donald Trump in next month’s polls.

Lichtman, a prominent professor at American University, has developed a prediction system known as the “White House Keys,” which has correctly determined the results of every US presidential election since 1984.

Lichtman developed the system in collaboration with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. It adapts the prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction. The system has a total of 13 keys. The political scientist says that if 6 of the 13 keys count against the current White House party, they are predicted to lose, and less than that, they are predicted to win.

In an interview with ANI, Lichtman says there are only four keys that work against incumbent Democrats, which means Donald Trump will not return to the White House.

“The White House party (Democrats) lose key #1, the incumbency key, because they lost seats in the US House in 2022. They lost key #3, the incumbency key, because the incumbent he doesn’t show up. They lose the key number 12, the incumbent. key to the charisma, because what you can think of Harris, she has been a candidate for a while, a humanitarian crisis with no good end in sight.” say the historian.

“That’s four more keys, two keys less than it would take to predict Donald Trump returning to the White House and Harris losing. So the keys predict we’ll have a groundbreaking new president, our first female president, and the first. president of Asian and African descent, kind of foreshadowing where America is going.We are fast becoming a minority country.Old whites like me are on the decline.

Speaking about the factors working in Democrats’ favor, Lichtman said there has been no election-year recession, third-party campaigning has faded and Republicans have been unsuccessful in building a scandal against the Democrats.

“Well, like I said, they’re only losing four. That means they’re winning nine keys. The contest key, because Democrats rallied around Harris. The third-party key, because RFK Jr.’s campaign ‘has faded. The short-term economic key, because there is no recession in the election year. The long-term economic key, because real per capita growth during Biden’s term has greatly exceeded the average of the previous two terms. because Biden’s policies are fundamentally different from Trump’s. They win the key to social unrest, because previous sporadic demonstrations have faded over four empty years,” Lichtman said.

“They win the key to foreign policy success, because Biden and Biden alone assembled the coalition of the West that prevented Putin from conquering Ukraine, as many predicted, and went on to threaten America’s allies in the ‘NATO and undermining US national security’ wins the challenger’s charisma key, because whatever you think of Trump as a showman, he doesn’t fit the definition of the key, which is a pervasive inspirational candidate who is just he appeals to a narrow base In four years as president, his approval rating was just 41 percent, historically low among presidents.And in two consecutive elections, he lost the popular vote by a total of 10 million votes That’s why there are nine keys in favor of the Democrats,” he said.

Vice President Kamala Harris is the first woman, the first black, and the first Asian American vice president. If elected president, the 59-year-old would become the first woman in history to become president of the United States.

He faces former President Donald Trump, who is eyeing a historic return to the White House after a bitter exit in 2020. If he wins, it would be the first time in more than 100 years in US history that a president he would serve two non-consecutive presidential terms.

The US presidential polls are scheduled for November 5.

Asked whether there might be different winners between Democrats and Republicans in terms of the electoral college and popular vote, Lichtman said he hasn’t made any predictions on that front.

He also stressed that the keys don’t change in swing states, which essentially decide the outcome of US elections, and stood by his prediction of a Harris victory.

The political scientist also called the October surprise, a major event that changes the outcome of the poll before the November poll, as the “biggest myth” in American history.

“The October Surprise is the biggest myth in American history. I’ve predicted every election, 10 elections, this is my 11th, long before any October Surprise. We had the biggest surprise of ‘October of history in 2016, when Donald Trump was recorded in Many pundits said that it is over, which has never changed my prediction of Trump’s victory, which turned out to be correct.

Speaking about the two candidates, he further said that Trump is an insider leader who is against the collective security of America’s allies, while Harris is a “typical” American president who believes in working with allies He also said that the position of the United States today is “much better” than it was during four years of the Trump administration.

“Trump is the first president or candidate of the United States, any of them. He believes in turning inward. He is against collective security with our allies. He has torn apart our NATO alliance many times and our NATO allies are very concerned about a Trump presidency. Harris is your typical president who believes in collective security, who believes in working with our allies and not trying to do it alone.” said Lichtman.

“In fact, the position of the United States around the world is much better in terms of how the United States was perceived … the United States than it was during the Trump administration when he had basically torn apart our allies,” he added. (ANI)