Reviewing the status of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Back in the traditional ramp up to the peak of the hurricane season in early September, much was written about the “failure” of the hurricane season, alluding to what forecasters predicted would be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record.

At that point, the Atlantic had gone almost the entire 3-week stretch to the peak of the season without any active tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes, the first time that had happened since at least the Great Depression. It was confusing, not only for viewers, but also for the scientists who had issued those seasonal forecasts.

But everything changed with Francine on September 9. Not only did Francine break the dry spell, but it quickly hit southern Louisiana as the third U.S. hurricane of 2024 on September 11, already doubling the average number of annual hurricane landfalls in the USA

Two weeks after Francine’s impact, Helene formed and became the fourth U.S. hurricane and the first major (Category 3 or greater) hurricane of the season, devastating Florida’s Big Bend and its coast west before wiping out entire mountain communities with catastrophic flooding.

Category 4 Kirk, Category 2 Leslie, and Category 5 Milton followed during the same week, with Milton becoming the fifth North American hurricane and the second major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) to hit the U.S. this season Only 6 other hurricane seasons (1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020) in 174 years of record keeping are known to have had this many hurricane landfalls in the continental United States.

It’s been a remarkable turnaround in a season that has come in fits and starts. Beryl in early July became the first Category 5 hurricane on record and helped 2024 reach its busiest season yet. Activity was sporadic thereafter, but included the landfall of Hurricane Debby in Florida in the interim before dropping significantly in late August.

The past 3 weeks of gangbusters activity, however, have catapulted the 2024 hurricane season to not only above-average levels, but the 8th busiest season to date, surpassing last season’s levels and up to and all of 2020, which ended up being one of the most intense. active hurricane seasons on record.

History, along with an understanding of climate factors and how they interact with hurricane science, is always a useful guide, which is why we spent so much time in late August and early September in this newsletter warning that bankruptcy is not prematurely discussed and argued. during a late part of the hurricane season.

There’s still a lot to learn about this hurricane season, including whether the late surge is part of a larger climate trend, but 2024 will certainly be remembered as one of the deadliest and most consequential hurricane seasons we’ve seen , a strong statement given the rash of disastrous hurricane seasons this century.

A break for now, but some areas worth watching next week

Milton is gone and Leslie heads out to sea in the mid-Atlantic.

A strong tropical disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L, is producing tropical storm conditions as it moves across the Cape Verde Islands off Africa this morning. The models are right on their odds of development, but as it will generally track west towards the easternmost islands of the Caribbean over the next week, we want to keep an eye on it. NHC gives it a 50/50 development over the next 7 days.

Meanwhile, models show the storm will increase again in the western Caribbean by next week. Although the US GFS wants to do something in this area next Thursday and Friday, it is probably overstating the odds of development as the European model and its ensembles are developing next weekend (the end of week of October 19). As is often the case, the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, so we’ll be keeping an eye on the trends next week.