How can AP declare winners in states where polls just closed

WASHINGTON (AP) – The Associated Press declared winners Tuesday in some states where polls had just closed and, in some cases, before any ballots had been released.

How is that possible?

While hotly contested races that take hours or days to count may get the most attention, the AP for decades has called landslide or uncontested races at closing the survey time.

That’s what happened on Tuesday, when the AP declared former President Donald Trump the winner in Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee and Vice President Kamala Harris the winner in Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, while the final polls closed in those tune in at 8pm ET. The AP also declared winners as the poll closed in earlier states as well as some US Senate and governor races.

The AP considers several factors and analyzes available data before determining whether a winner can be declared when polls close in a particular state. But the AP will never declare the result in a competitive contest before counting enough votes to make a clear winner.

Many calls at poll closing time are for uncontested elections

Many of the races called right after the polls close are uncontested elections where only one candidate appears on the ballot and is therefore the only possible winner of the race. Voters in some parts of the country live in multi-member districts for offices such as the state legislature, where more than one candidate is elected in a district. In those districts, an uncontested race is one where the number of candidates on the ballot is equal to or less than the number of seats available in that district.

In the 2024 general election, the AP declares winners in nearly 2,000 uncontested races compared to about 4,500 contested races.

It is sometimes possible to declare winners at the close of polls in uncompetitive multi-candidate races in areas where a political party has an established history of uneven victories.

In these cases, the AP analyzes multiple available data sources to confirm the result. This includes the results of the AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of both voters and non-voters that determines who voted, how they voted and why.

The AP will not call a race when the polls close if the AP VoteCast results indicate a departure from the state’s long-standing political trends and voting history.

Only a small number will be survey closing calls

AP VoteCast results will be available for all 50 states, though only a relatively small number of the least competitive races will be considered possible close poll calls. There is no AP VoteCast poll in the District of Columbia; therefore, none of the contests there will be called when the polls close, even though the nation’s capital has a long history of landslide victories for Democratic candidates.

For example, the AP’s calls to close the poll in the 2020 presidential election included Wyoming, a state that last voted for a Democrat in 1968 and which Donald Trump won over Joe Biden by 44 points; and Massachusetts, which last voted for a Republican in 1984 and that Biden won by 34 points over Trump.

A handful of states and districts have multiple poll closing times because they are in more than one time zone. In these cases, PA will never declare a winner before the final closing time of the polls in that state or district. Florida, Texas and others begin releasing voting results from most states shortly after polls close in the previous time zone. Votes that are already counted from areas in previous time zones will also be taken into account to determine whether a winner can be declared when the last polls close.

Other election data the AP considers includes an area’s voting history since the recent election, voter registration statistics and polls leading up to Election Day.

When the above data confirms the expected result in a state where either major party has a history of dominating elections, the AP can call the race as soon as voting closes.

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Learn more about how and why PAs declare winners in US elections at Explaining the 2024 election, an Associated Press series designed to help understand American democracy. AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about the AP Democracy Initiative Here. AP is solely responsible for all content.