Anticipated votes exceed 81 million in the 2024 election

The first in-person and mail-in ballots have arrived across the country, and state-by-state tallies reveal growing voter enthusiasm.

The race between the former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is rated at the top of the Fox News Power Rankings, and the results are expected to come down to each candidate’s performance in seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina.

States have long allowed at least some Americans vote early such as the military and sick people who cannot make it to the polls. Many states have expanded eligibility in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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In recent presidential elections, mail-in ballots have tended to skew Democratic. In 2020, 60 percent of Democrats said they voted by mail, compared to 32 percent of Republicans, according to a study 2021 from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.

By Monday evening, more than 81 million ballots had been cast nationwide.

Here’s a breakdown of where early voting, either by mail or in person, took place in the seven battleground states, according to The Associated Press. Some states, such as Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, also provide a party breakdown of the early votes that were cast.

Arizona – 2,338,379Arizona Early Votes by Party Affiliation: Democrats: 758,342 Republicans: 954,306 Third Party Voters: 625,731

Georgia – 4,017,401

Michigan – 3,195,928

Nevada – 1,081,123Nevada early voting by party affiliation: Democrats: 364,750 Republicans: 407,889 Third-party voters: 308,484

North Carolina – 4,453,345North Carolina Early Votes by Party Affiliation Democrats: 1,441,735 Republicans: 1,482,328 Unaffiliated Voters: 1,497,331 Third Party Voters: 31,951

Pennsylvania – 1,790,319Pennsylvania early votes by party affiliationDemocrats: 997,450Republicans: 587,546Third-party voters: 205,323

Wisconsin – 1,510,773

Over the past two decades, the prevalence of early voting has skyrocketed. Although early votes demonstrate voter enthusiasm, they do not reliably determine which candidate wins the race because fewer voters are expected to vote early than in previous presidential elections.

In 2020, Fox News Voter Analysis found that 71% of voters cast their ballots before Election Day, with 30% voting early in person and 41% voting by mail. This time around, polls suggest about four in 10 voters will turn out before Nov. 5, according to the Gallup poll.

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Democrats and Republicans are expected to be less divided on early voting this cycle. Four years ago, Democrats won early voting overall by 11 points. However, two things have changed: First, with the COVID-19 pandemic no longer at the fore, many voters will be more willing to show up on Election Day. Second, unlike in 2020, Trump and the GOP are no longer discouraging their voters from voting early. The result should be a narrower partisan gap once the votes are counted.

Some states also provide breakdowns of their early voting — for example, by party affiliation, race or age. Comparing these results to other elections might give the impression that one candidate or party is now doing better than the other.

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Additionally, while early voting data shows the party registration of some voters, it does not reveal how they voted. States don’t release actual vote counts until election night. Voting data that some states now release show the party affiliation of voters who requested or returned a ballot. However, this is not the same as their actual vote. For example, a voter may have registered as a Democrat decades ago but chose to vote for Trump this year. Many voters are not registered with either party, making their vote even more of a mystery.