Senate Republicans will elect their first new leader in nearly 20 years

The only near certainty about the next Senate Republican leader is that his name will probably be John.

The top two candidates vying to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., as Senate leader are Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota.

Sen. Rick Scott, who is seeking re-election in Florida, is also running, but is seen more as a spoiler candidate who could help determine the winner of the secret ballot election. The leadership election will take place after senators return to Washington in mid-November.

Little differentiates the two leading men in substance or style: soft-spoken and lovable, both are seen as bottom-line political actors and savvy political operators. Thune, as the second-highest-ranking Republican, is perceived to have a narrow lead, but this was a fairly polite race that suggests most senators would settle for either man as leader.

The more contentious issue on the table is whether Senate Republicans will vote to impose more term limits to prevent the kind of extended reign McConnell has enjoyed for most of the past two decades.

Unsurprisingly, McConnell is vehemently opposed and is advising senators to reject the proposal, but it is gaining momentum among new senators like Scott. In a nod to the growing strength of the party’s anti-establishment wing, Cornyn accepted term limits earlier this year. Thune neither supported nor rejected the idea, but promised to empower more senators.

So far, Donald Trump has stayed out of the leadership race, but his support — or opposition — could also throw a wrench in who is ultimately elected.