Israel launches campaign to reshape Middle East regional order – The Irish Times

For several years, the israeli army worked slab by slab on an ambitious project: a huge concrete wall, seven meters high, to protect his villages on the northern border from Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

The wall, which was to one day extend over much of the 130 km border, fitted perfectly into Israel’s isolation strategy. Along with reinforced barriers around The Gaza Stripin WEST BANKalong the busy ones The Golan Heights and the Egyptian border, the idea was to keep enemies at bay and bolster Israelis’ sense of security.

But in the year since then Hamas breached the Gaza barrier to launch its The October 7 attackthe wall of Lebanon – like the doctrine of Israel – has become a relic. In the Middle East, Israel now sees an opportunity to take the fight to its enemies and try to impose a new order: what prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu calls for a “strategic turnaround” to change the “security reality in our region for generations to come.”

The imposing wall is now being punched with holes to allow Israeli forces into the battlefields of southern Lebanon.

“Israel is no longer passive, we are active, we initiate and we will initiate in the future – preventive wars are no longer a sin,” said Yaakov Amidror, a retired Israeli general at the Jewish National Institute. United States think-tank security. “We will prevent any attempt by any of our enemies to be the monster next to our borders.”

The battlefield gains have bolstered Israel’s confidence, bolstering its sense of military superiority as the war’s initial goals of eliminating Hamas and freeing hostages held in Gaza morphed into a multi-front conflict against Iran and of his proxies.

Netanyahu, considered risk-averse before the Hamas attack, told the Knesset last week that Israel’s strategy was to “dismantle” Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, which includes Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, which have fired at Israel in the past year.

Netanyahu cited Israel’s attack on Iranian military targets last month — retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage on Israel — as an example of this “strategic turn.” It was the first time Israeli forces had acknowledged a direct hit on their enemy and followed a month of intense Israeli military activity in the region.

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After a year of cross-border firefights, Israel has dramatically expanded its offensive against Hezbollah, striking targets across Lebanon and launching the first ground invasion of its northern neighbor in nearly two decades. Israeli forces have also launched a fierce new offensive in northern Gaza in recent weeks, launched airstrikes in Syria and bombed Houthi targets in Yemen.

Israel’s thinking is that by severely degrading Hamas and Hezbollah, it has weakened the Islamic republic’s primary defense against the Jewish state.

Amir Avivi, a retired general and founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, said Israel “understands that we have a historic opportunity not only to eradicate Hamas, but also to dismantle Hezbollah” and strike Iran.

“Iran has lost its strategic depth … and this is the time to really take them out of the equation,” said Avivi, who is close to the far-right government. “When (Netanyahu) talks about total victory today, that… is about really bringing down the Shiite axis.”

He predicted a “long campaign”. “It will not stop until this (Iranian) regime is on its knees, just like Hezbollah,” Avivi said.

A critical question is whether Israel will try to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, with Netanyahu saying last week that the “ultimate goal” of Israeli security services is to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Avivi said Israel’s prediction is that a cornered Iran will weaponize its program. “Either they go nuclear or we destroy them,” he said.

Experts have long said Israel would need US assistance to seriously damage the republic’s nuclear facilities, but the Oct. 26 direct strikes on Iran, consisting of about 100 Israeli warplanes and fuel stockpiles, could have demonstrated capabilities larger than previously thought.

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“They were simply able to conduct … this long-range strike operation without our reserves,” said a former US defense official. “They still need heavy bombs, but if the airspace is not contested (over Iran), then the Israelis might be able to take some changes.”

The sense of military superiority also shapes Israel’s approach to US-led diplomatic efforts to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

Netanyahu is refusing to give in to Hamas demands to agree to a permanent ceasefire and withdraw Israeli troops from Gaza to secure the release of the hostages. And he insists that Israel retains the right to unilaterally implement any agreement that would lead to Hezbollah’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

“We understand that we are in a unique opportunity – we have superiority over Hezbollah. I cannot resist,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the Financial Times. “Their ability to defend themselves in southern Lebanon is collapsing. Unlike (in the last war) in 2006, Israel’s military achievements today put us in a strong position to demand that Hezbollah push back its forces.”

There are also signs that Syria, where Iranian forces and Hezbollah fighters have been deployed to support Bashar al-Assad’s regime during Syria’s civil war, is in Israel’s sights. Israel, which has long launched sporadic strikes on targets linked to Iran and Hezbollah, has expanded its attacks over the past year.

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“We cannot accept the Iranian military in Syria,” Gallant said. “We must stop the transfer of weapons, especially powerful weapons, from Iran through Syria and Iraq to Lebanon.”

Israel’s military offensives have reshaped the region, with devastating consequences for millions of Palestinians and Lebanese. Much of Gaza has been rendered uninhabitable, while more than 90 percent of the strip’s population of 2.3 million have been driven from their homes.

More than a million people have also been displaced in Lebanon as Israel’s relentless bombing campaign destroys areas of the southern and eastern Bekaa Valley.

Michael Wahid Hanna, US program director at think tank Crisis Group, said the Middle East appeared to be in a “new open phase of regionalized conflict” as Israel “senses an opportunity” to reshape the region after his good pleasure.

The costs to Israel were “manageable” in terms of casualties and reputation, Hanna added, despite the fact that “certain corners of the world viewed them as some kind of rogue state.”

“As long as they have the full support of the US and much of Europe, with gritted teeth, they can get away with it,” Hanna said. But “the brutality of the war and the tenor of public opinion will mean that Arab relations remain largely very cold.”

A question that remains largely unaddressed by Israel’s leaders is what will come next and when.

Amidror, who is close to Netanyahu, said he expected Israel to continue fighting in Gaza throughout next year to “cleanse” the strip “of all (Hamas) remnants.”

Netanyahu insists that Israel will maintain overall security control over Gaza, with or without a ceasefire.

Amidror said the dynamic would be similar to areas of the West Bank nominally under Palestinian administration, where Israeli forces freely strike suspected militants. And in Lebanon, he predicted, Israel will continue to strike Hezbollah targets.

Asked about the risks of perennial conflict, Amidror said: “We don’t buy these stories anymore. It’s the same story we were told inside and outside of Israel before October 7.”

Still, other Israelis worry that their country is on a path to endless war, with no clear strategy on how to translate battlefield successes into lasting political gains, fighting ideological enemies that will continue even in their state. weakened

“Victory or win, I’m not sure you can use those terms in terms of this war,” said Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli intelligence officer. “This is the most difficult thing: every day we see military achievements, the killing of (Hamas leader Yahya) Sinwar, the destruction of Hezbollah (infrastructure), but when will we see the end? When can we plan something?”

– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024