Will voters give Democrats control?

Winning two additional seats in the state House of Representatives this year would give Democrats strength they haven’t had since 1964.

Nobody said it would be easy.

Arizona Republicans are vulnerable in both the House and Senate, where they hold a one-seat majority in each chamber. A win in both while Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs remains in office would catapult the state into a whole new political dimension.

But while Democrats have several paths to electoral victory in the House this election, so do Republicans. For every imagined Democratic win of a House seat, it’s easy to imagine a Republican win in a different district that would spoil the Democrats’ goal.

Republicans had the overall registration advantage in the state, as well as in seven of the eight possible swing districts coveted by Democrats. Concerns about inflation and border issues have pushed some on-the-fence voters to the right.

Among the Democratic advantages are some conservatives’ strong dislike of two “front-runner” candidates — former President Donald Trump and U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake — and an abortion-rights measure on the ballot that could lead to a more high Democratic turnout, with both trends potentially affecting legislative races.

Whoever wins control of the House will come down to those tracks in just a few of the state’s 30 legislative districts.

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Legislative District 17 — Southern Pinal County, north of Tucson

Political observers agree that one of the Democrats’ best chances is in this sprawling three-county district centered on Marana and including parts of Tucson and its northern suburbs, such as Oro Valley.

The current House members both belong to the conservative Arizona Freedom Caucus and are known for their far-right positions on issues from abortion to elections. Reps. Cory McGarr and Rachel Jones promise consistent conservative positions on issues such as abortion, firearms, alleged voter fraud and immigration. Both have also faced criticism for positions that stray from the Republican mainstream. McGarr, for example, introduced a bill this year that would have essentially voided Arizona’s presidential election if the candidate for one of the major parties were kicked off the ballot “for any reason” in any state. The bill was never heard.

The state’s redistricting commission drew the district in 2021 to give more power to conservatives in the Tucson area, which has been a Democratic landscape for years. Although he has a substantial Republican registration advantage, an Arizona Republic analysis shows that his voters chose Hobbs for governor in 2022 over Lake. McGarr also defeated Democratic House candidate Dana Allmond that year by less than 1 percentage point.

Democrat Kevin Volk of Tucson has the inherent advantage of being a one-choice candidate: Such candidates benefit from voters’ tendency to vote for just one House candidate from their party instead of two. Volk also dominates the campaign funds with nearly half a million dollars in donations plus another quarter million in independent spending support.

Volk is taking expected Democratic positions on affordable housing, education and abortion rights, but has also emphasized funding for border security.

McGarr and Jones have each raised nearly $150,000 for their campaigns, and both enjoy six-figure independent support spending. McGarr also has to face more than $200,000 in outside costs against him.

Legislative District 13 – Chandler, Gilbert

The 13th Legislative District, which includes most of Chandler and part of Gilbert, could provide a Democratic House tie if voters select both party candidates there.

But that’s not necessarily likely. Voters in the GOP-leaning district elected Democrat Jennifer Pawlik to serve in 2022 along with right-leaning Republican Liz Harris, creating a split district. Harris was expelled from the Legislature last year and replaced by Julie Willoughby. But the equation for Democrats changed when Pawlik decided not to run again this year.

Republican Jeff Weningera business-minded Republican who previously served in the Legislature and on the Chandler City Council, stepped up to try to fill Pawlik’s seat.

The Democrats ran two candidates, Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzalesin an attempt to keep Pawlik’s seat, wins Willoughby’s seat.

Neither has held a position before. Reese is a retired Oklahoma criminal who has touted his “peace officer” credentials in campaign literature and supports more public school spending. Gonzales is a former small businessman and housing planner for Chicanos Por La Causa.

Legislative District 4 — East Phoenix, Scottsdale

Democrats could also pick up a House seat in Legislative District 4, which includes Paradise Valley and parts of north Phoenix and Scottsdale. Democrats Karen Gresham and former Rep. Kelli Butler I hope we win both seats in the House.

One of the seats is already held by Democrat Eric Meyer, a former lawmaker who is not running for re-election and was tapped to replace him Rep. Laura Terech, who resigned in July.

Democrats hope to keep Meyerhis seat and defeat incumbent Republican Rep. Matt Gress. First-time congressional candidate Pamela Carter is also running as a Republican.

The House race is one of the most expensive of all legislative races: Gress has received more than $570,000 in campaign contributions and another half million in outside spending to support him. Gresham and Butler each raised nearly $500,000.

Legislative District 2 — North Phoenix

Democrats have created another possible opening for Republicans in the 2nd Legislative District with a strategic move to recruit an incumbent representative Judy Schwiebert to try to dismantle the incumbent state Senator Shawnna Bolick. While the change gives Democrats a good chance to flip the Senate seat now held by Republicans, they need a first-time candidate for the legislature. Stephanie Simacek to win Schwiebert’s old seat.

Two Republicans — incumbents Rep. Justin Wilmeth and political newcomer Ari Bradshaw — I hope we win both places. Independent candidate Tom Simes also makes a play here.

Legislative District 9 — Mesa

Democrats must keep both of their current House members, Representatives Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman in West Mesa’s 9th Legislative District.

The district leans slightly Democratic, but Republicans hope the candidates Kylie Barber or Mary Ann Mendoza will kick out one or both Democrats.

Funding was a key factor for the Democratic candidates, who collected $1.8 million in donations and outside spending — about seven times more than the two Republicans.

Other districts

In the 27th Legislative District of Glendale and Peoria, Democrat Deborah Howard is running as a single candidate against two new hopefuls, Republican candidates Lisa Fink and former Assemblyman Tony Rivero.

Both seats are open because House Speaker Ben Toma decided not to run for re-election, instead trying unsuccessfully to win the Republican primary in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, and term-limited Rep. Kevin Payne has unopposed candidate for the district. Senate seat.

A Howard win would be a major upset with both seats currently Republican. But it’s a long shot because the district is heavily skewed Republican.

To secure a majority in Parliament, both parties must avoid losing their current seats to the competition.

Republican Michele Peña won a House seat in the 23rd Legislative District in 2022, relieving Republicans of a 30-30 power-sharing tie. Because it’s unclear how Peña won the Democratic-leaning district, other than a one-shot effect, Democrats are hoping lightning doesn’t strike twice. Matias Rosalesa member of the San Luis City Council, is running to try to defeat Peña along with incumbent Rep. Mariana Sandoval.

A potential flip observers believe is more likely for Republicans could occur in the 16th Legislative District, which includes Sacaton and the Gila River Indian Reservation, Maricopa, Casa Grande and Coolidge. Republican Teresa Martinez and Democrat Keith Seaman won the two House seats there in 2022. But another Republican, Chris Lopezchallenged Seaman, who is considered vulnerable in the Republican-leaning district.

This story will be updated as election results are reported.

Contact the reporter at [email protected] or 480-276-3237. Follow X @raystern.