For Tehran and Tel Aviv, war with limited options

On October 1, Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, and on October 26, Israel responded with three waves of strikes against Iranian military targets. As the conflict in West Asia enters a new phase with a growing risk of direct confrontation between the United States (US) and Iran, concerns are growing around the world’s capitals.

The current confrontation between Israel and Iran’s allies, which began with the surprise and bloody attack launched by the Palestinian group Hamas on October 7, 2023, has already affected Lebanon, where Israel is fighting the Shiite militia Hezbollah. The possibility of open war between Iran and Israel worries both Israelis and Iranians. In addition to the loss of life, an Israeli attack on Iran’s oil facilities could be followed by Tehran cutting off the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the daily transit route for more than 20 percent of the world’s oil.

That said, Iran’s options are limited, and the Israelis know it. Iran has no partner that identifies with its Shia ideological position or its hegemonic policy in the region. This is an ideological isolation that Iran experienced during its eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s. If Iran is affected by its geographical location, it is unlikely that countries in its extended neighborhood such as Turkey and Russia, to help the mullahs.

As for the predominantly Sunni countries of the Persian Gulf region – Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar – they either have security agreements with the US or host US forces. Also, unlike its main regional rival, Saudi Arabia, Iran is neither a member of the Arab League nor the Gulf Cooperation Council.

So can Iran win a war against Israel? Israel has the independent ability to strike Iran hard, but it will not be able to defeat Iran’s clerics and its Revolutionary Guards without American military assistance. This is why the Israeli air force that struck Iran’s military facilities on October 26 refrained from targeting oil and nuclear targets.

And yet, as the conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, the younger generation in Israel and Iran keep their distance from the war. The Islamic regime in Iran is characterized by repression of the youth. The fervor of the early years of the 1979 revolution and the war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq is gone. After 45 years of political and economic mismanagement by the regime, young Iranians are a disillusioned lot.

Economic sanctions and currency devaluation hurt them – today, they are more concerned with the deterioration of their living conditions than with an ideological conflict not of their making.

Frustrated, Iran’s educated youth are fleeing the country to escape unemployment and political insecurity. Also, the youth of Israel do not want to be dragged into a war that is not of their making.

Israel cannot mount a major and sustained ground incursion into Iran, and Tehran can only count on West Asian proxies to inflict damage on Tel Aviv. The Israelis also hope that the Iranians will turn against their regime. According to Iranian social media, many Iranians believe that an eventual war between Iran and Israel could lead to regime change in Tehran.

That said, none of them want Iranian cities to be bombed or ordinary citizens to die. A war without casualties and one that could force a change of government is an illusion, as the ongoing events in Gaza and past conflicts in West Asia reveal.

Ramin Jahanbegloo, an Iranian philosopher, is Director, Mahatma Gandhi Center for Peace Studies, Jindal Faculty of Global Law. The opinions expressed are personal