Eroding Perceived Invincibility – Firstpost

In light of the recent events following the Hamas offensive against Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah is at a critical crossroads. Historically recognized as the pre-eminent military and political entity in Lebanon and the wider Middle Eastern landscape, Hezbollah currently faces significant challenges in maintaining its valued status and operational effectiveness, exacerbated by a series of strategic errors by calculation, increasing casualties and internal disorder.

The unpredictable characteristics of Hamas’ “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” initially placed Hezbollah in a state of considerable disorganization. Historically recognized as representing the Lebanese resistance, Hezbollah has shown a particularly slow response, misinterpreting communications from Hamas. This organization, which primarily focused its efforts on increasing regional dominance as an Iranian proxy rather than engaging in direct relations with Israel after its withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, nevertheless established a front in southern Lebanon to ease the pressure on Hamas.

Contrary to Hezbollah’s expectations of a quick resolution, the protracted conflict has led to Israeli forces progressively pushing it away from the border, eroding its historic status as a deterrent and fueling domestic calls for disarmament.

The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah during an Israeli airstrike in September 2024 significantly exacerbated the organization’s existing turmoil. This major incident shattered Hezbollah’s enduring belief in their invulnerability, plunging the group into an unprecedented level of disarray. Not only did the organization face obstacles in finding a successor to Nasrallah, but it also failed to follow key Islamic burial practices, resulting in Nasrallah remaining unburied for longer than the usual 24 hours. This situation illustrates a serious organizational inadequacy within Hezbollah, as its failure to respect its deceased leader is correspondingly indicative of significant operational deterioration.

Iran’s Strategic Leverage on Hezbollah’s Future

It is critical to recognize that Iran’s current engagement with Hezbollah indicates a declining focus on protecting its military assets, emphasizing instead the possible effects of Hezbollah’s regression—or development—for advancing Iran’s strategic priorities in the region. In this framework, Hezbollah can be interpreted as having greater importance for Iran as a tool of strategic leverage in key geopolitical discussions, rather than as a mere legitimate military force.

Tehran may perceive the military defeat of this group or its withdrawal from southern Lebanon as a strategic concession that could be leveraged for increased influence in other areas, such as Iraq. If Hezbollah is perceived as ineffectively countering Israeli maneuvers or protecting Lebanon’s territorial sovereignty, Iran could argue for its diminution as a military entity, leveraging its diminution to negotiate concessions on other issues, including its nuclear aspirations or regional hegemony in Iraq.

This creates the possibility of a post-Hezbollah era defined by either the dissolution of the organization or its transformation into a purely political entity. However, Hezbollah’s discourse has been persistently anchored in its ideology of resistance, and in the absence of its military assets, it may face considerable challenges in sustaining its political significance both domestically in Lebanon and in a broader geopolitics.

The post-Hezbollah phase

Dissolving Hezbollah would undoubtedly create a significant power vacuum within the Lebanese state. According to Imad Salamey, a distinguished scholar of Lebanese affairs and a political scientist affiliated with the Lebanese American University, “Dismantling Hezbollah’s operational capabilities will empower adversaries and anti-Iranian factions in Lebanon.” Salamey also predicts that the looming power vacuum could spark civil unrest and unravel the fabric of societal harmony — and draw in international actors to exploit the turmoil for their own gain.

Given the group’s obvious deterioration, Hezbollah’s domestic opponents could exploit this situation to further marginalize the organization. In this scenario, the participation of the Amal Movement and Nabih Berri assumes paramount importance. As an experienced Speaker of Parliament and head of the Shiite-oriented Amal Movement, Berri has traditionally wielded considerable influence in Lebanon’s sectarian political landscape. In a Lebanon that has moved beyond Hezbollah’s rule, Berri’s authority would be essential in guiding the political evolution for the Shiite community.

However, the question remains whether Hezbollah can survive as a mere political force without its formidable military arm. The essence of the organization’s narrative was intrinsically linked to its position as a bastion of resistance, and the absence of key figures such as Hassan Nasrallah would significantly jeopardize Hezbollah’s ability to function in the political realm.

Deprived of the legitimacy provided by its military wing, Hezbollah would face substantial challenges in garnering domestic support. On the contrary, Berri could emerge as the essential Shiite leader adept at leading this transformation, potentially helping to either solidify the political landscape or exacerbate sectarian divisions. His deep-rooted connections in Lebanon’s political framework, along with his ability to mediate between various factions, could position him as the cornerstone of any Shiite political agenda in a post-Hezbollah context. However, Amal and Berri’s ability to flourish independently without Hezbollah’s approval remains an open question.

Conclusion

Hezbollah’s anticipated future is now irrevocably tied to evolving regional dynamics, in which Iran perceives the organization as an indispensable asset in its negotiations with global authorities. As Hezbollah suffers military setbacks and its influence in Lebanon wanes, its dual identity as both a resistance entity and a political movement hangs precariously in the balance. At this critical juncture, Iran’s decision to either strengthen Hezbollah or allow it to disintegrate remains ambiguous. On the contrary, Lebanon is at a pivotal crossroads—potentially a tipping point—where demographic shifts, political alliances, and regional agreements will significantly shape its trajectory and the well-being of its people.

The author is a foreign policy analyst based in India. The views expressed in the piece above are personal and solely the author’s. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.