Overturning the 2024 election will be no easy feat

An underestimated factor in 2024 is that while former President Donald Trump and his closest allies have they learned from their failed coup attempt in 2020everyone else learned too.

On the first one the anniversary of the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, I wrote ways to protect American democracy pending another attempt in 2024. I am pleased to say that most have happened.

Voters across the country rejected “electoral denier” conspiracy theorists who ran for election administration positions. Congress reformed the Electoral Number Lawaddressing loopholes that Trump and congressional Republicans tried to exploit on January 6. Large defamation payments for Dominance Voting Systemsas well as election workers in Georgia Ruby Freeman and Shaye Mossit gives the right-wing media a financial disincentive against pushing blatant lies.

The legal system didn’t stop Trump from getting this chance to be above the law, but the Justice Department successfully did has tried hundreds of attackers since January 6. Some of the most dangerous, such as militiamen convicted of seditious conspiracy, are in prison. They can’t attack this time, and they set an example for others: Trump can pardon insurgents if he becomes president, but you’re in trouble if he doesn’t.

The Republican Party has purged officials who will at least disagree with Trump’s “big lie” and primed its supporters to deny the election results by hammering out lies about fraud. And this time they’ll have Elon Musk’s X spewing conspiracy theories and trying to incite political violence, as he recently did made in uk

If Trump loses, some degree of violence is likely as Trump and the MAGA media whip their followers into a frenzy, but law enforcement will be more prepared. And he’s not president, so he probably can’t call a crowd on the National Mall in Washington and facilitate violence by ordering metal detectors removed.

There are larger concerns at the state level. Some MAGA election administration officials will reject votes they don’t like or try otherwise manipulate the process. We could see another fake voter scheme or state legislatures claiming they can void their voters.

But the 2020 fake voters failed too was accusedwith first conviction coming this August. To succeed this time, they would need their state governors and a majority in Congress, both of which are unlikely. Even that Trump-authoritarianism-sympathetic Supreme Court rejected claims of state legislative supremacy.

A more vulnerable point is the counting of votes, especially in swing states where it could take several days. Republican-led Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t begin processing mail-in ballots until Election Day state legislatures rejected the requests for reform. Trump could try to exploit any delays by declaring victory based on partial counts.

But 2020 was a better environment for that scam. Mail-in ballots had a strong Democratic slant, as Democrats took Covid more seriously than Republicans and Trump lied about the mail-in as a pretext to challenge the vote. This year, Republicans are encouraging early voting and by mail. And whatever happens, year army of lawyers is ready to fight in court.

There is a risk of violent demonstrations at the counting centers. But areas that faced threatening crowds last time are more prepared. For example, Maricopa County — which includes Phoenix and more than half of Arizona’s population — will protect counting centers with drone surveillance and police snipers. “Electoral Workers” The Wall Street Journal reports“they went through active shooter drills and learned to barricade themselves or wield fire hoses to fend off armed mobs.”

Other swing states should increase security at vote counting centers if they haven’t already. Especially in populated areas that will take longer to count, such as in and around Philadelphia.

The biggest risk is if the election comes down to a single state, which limits the changes Trump would need, increasing the incentives to try to disrupt. But it would draw immense national attention from all quarters, with lawyers, political operatives, protesters and the media descending on the state.

Electoral administration is diffuse and multi-layered, and much of it is in front of the camera. More judges and election officials want to uphold the law than overturn it. We may not know the winner on election night, but we will almost certainly get an accurate number and a certified winner in time.

The positive scenario is for Trump to lie about the election results and try to subvert democracy with the support of the establishment Republican Party. It would sound shockingly bad for an American in 2015, but in 2024 it’s much better than the alternative.

If they win, all bets are void. But if he loses, we can rest assured that it will be harder for him and his team to try to steal the election this time around.