Israel’s path of destruction in southern Lebanon raises fears of an attempt to create a buffer zone

More than 1 million people fled the bombing, emptying much of the south. Some experts say Israel may aim to create a depopulated buffer zone, a strategy it has already implemented along the border with Gaza.

Some conditions for such an area already appear to exist, according to an Associated Press analysis of satellite images and data collected by mapping experts showing the extent of destruction in 11 villages near the border.

The Israeli military said the bombing was needed to destroy Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure it says the group has embedded in cities. The blasts also destroyed homes, neighborhoods and sometimes entire villages where families had lived for generations.

Israel says it aims to push Hezbollah far enough for its citizens to safely return to their homes in the north, but Israeli officials admit they have no concrete plan to ensure Hezbollah stays away from the border in the long term . This is a key point in US attempts to negotiate a ceasefire.

Orna Mizrahi, a senior fellow at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel’s immediate goal is not to create a buffer zone — but that could change.

“We may have no choice but to sit there until we have an arrangement that promises that Hezbollah will not return to the area,” she said.

The troops pushed into southern Lebanon on October 1, backed by heavy bombardment that has since intensified.

Using satellite imagery provided by Planet Labs PBC, the AP identified a line of 11 villages — all within 4 miles of Lebanon’s border with Israel — that were badly damaged in the past month, either by strikes or by explosive detonations laid by Israeli soldiers.

The analysis found that the most intense damage in the south came in the villages closest to the border, with between 100 and 500 buildings likely destroyed or damaged in each, according to Corey Scher of the CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Der Hoek of the University of State of Oregon, damage assessment experts.

In Ramyah, barely a single structure remains on the village’s central peak after a controlled detonation that Israeli soldiers were shown carrying out in videos posted on social media. In the next town, Aita al-Shaab – a village with a strong Hezbollah influence – the bombing turned the hilltop with the highest concentration of buildings into a gray wasteland of rubble.

In other villages, the damage is more selective. In some, the bombings tore scars through blocks of houses; in others, certain houses were crushed while their neighbors remained intact.

Another controlled detonation leveled much of the village of Odeissah, with an explosion so powerful it triggered earthquake alerts in Israel.

In videos of the explosion, Lubnan Baalbaki, the conductor of the Lebanese Philharmonic Orchestra, watched in disbelief as his parents’ home – which contained the art collection and a library his father had spent years building – was destroyed.

“This house was a project and a dream for both my parents,” he told the AP. His parents’ graves in the garden are now lost.

Asked if its intention was to create a buffer zone, the Israeli military said it was “conducting localized, limited, targeted raids based on precise intelligence” against Hezbollah targets. She said Hezbollah had “deliberately embedded” weapons in homes and villages.

Israeli journalist Danny Kushmaro even helped blow up a house that the military said was used to store Hezbollah ammunition. In a television segment, Kushmaro and the soldiers counted down before pressing a button, setting off a massive explosion.

Videos posted online by the Israeli military and individual soldiers show Israeli troops planting flags on Lebanese soil. However, Israel has not built any bases and has failed to maintain a permanent presence in southern Lebanon. Troops appear to be moving back and forth across the border, sometimes under heavy fire from Hezbollah.

October was the deadliest month of 2024 for the Israeli military, with around 60 soldiers killed.

The bombing was punctuated by Israeli attacks on UN troops and the Lebanese army – forces that, according to international law, are supposed to keep the peace in the area. Israel has long complained that their presence has not stopped Hezbollah from building infrastructure in the south.

Israel denies targeting either force.

The Lebanese army said at least 11 of its soldiers were killed in eight Israeli strikes, either at their positions or while assisting in the evacuation.

The peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, said its forces and infrastructure had been hit at least 30 times since late September, blaming Israeli fire or military action for about 20 of them, “seven being clearly deliberate”.

A rocket likely fired by Hezbollah or an allied group hit the UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura on Tuesday, causing several minor injuries, UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said.

UNIFIL has refused to leave southern Lebanon, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s calls for it to leave.

Experts warn that this could change if peacekeepers come under more attack.

“If you went from the UN taking casualties to the UN actually taking deaths,” some troop-contributing nations might “say ‘enough is enough’ and you might see the mission start to collapse,” said Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group.

International ceasefire efforts appear to be focused on implementing UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

It specified that Israeli forces would withdraw completely from Lebanon, while the Lebanese army and UNIFIL – not Hezbollah – would be the sole armed presence in an area about 15 miles from the border.

But the resolution was not fully implemented. Hezbollah has never left the border area, and Lebanon accuses Israel of continuing to occupy small areas of its territory and conducting frequent military overflights over its territory.

During a recent visit to Beirut, US Representative Amos Hochstein said a new agreement was needed to implement Resolution 1701.

Israel could try to pressure the existence of an agreement by destroying southern Lebanon.

Yossi Yehoshua, military correspondent for the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, wrote that the army must “further strengthen its operational achievements” to push Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and mediating countries “to accept the end (of the war) on terms that are convenient.” for Israel.”

Some Lebanese fear this means an occupation of parts of the south, 25 years after Israel ended its occupation there.

Lebanese lawmaker Mark Daou, a critic of both Hezbollah and Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, said he believed Israel was trying to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and turn the Lebanese public “against the will to resist Israeli incursions.”

Gowan, of the International Crisis Group, said one of the goals of Resolution 1701 was to give the Lebanese army enough credibility that it, not Hezbollah, would be seen “as the legitimate defender” in the south.

“That evaporates if they become (Israel’s) gendarmerie in southern Lebanon,” he said.