Trump or Harris? The Turkish government cannot decide which would be best

There are four days left the US presidential election and the Turkish leadership in Ankara is divided over the candidate it favors.

Turkish officials, speaking to Middle East Eye on condition of anonymity, believe either outcome would have a significant impact on Turkey’s foreign policy, as well as regional and global dynamics.

Many observers in Turkey believe that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is waiting for the results of the United States election before making his own policy decisions, even regarding his cabinet staff.

However, officials have been particularly and unusually tight-lipped about their preferred candidate this campaign period.

Erdogan’s only public intervention to either candidate was to Donald Trump in a phone call after the former president was shot during a rally in Pennsylvania in July.

Media reports claimed in September that Erdogan tried to arrange a meeting with Kamala Harris on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, but several Turkish officials denied this.

“Some officials floated the idea, but in the end no formal proposal was made to Harris’ team,” a source familiar with the matter told MEE. “We kept our distance from both candidates and did not seek a meeting with Trump either.”

Leaders of other neighboring countries, such as United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, have opted to meet with both Trump and Harris in September on the sidelines of the General Assembly.

Ups and downs

Turkey’s non-engagement with the candidates stems from two things, sources in Ankara say.

First, Ankara is deeply confused about the possible ramifications – pros and cons – of a Trump or Harris presidency for Turkey’s relationship with the US.

Many in Erdogan’s entourage believe a Trump presidency could work well with his government, as the two have a history of sharing frequent engagements such as phone calls and meetings, providing a space for the Turkish president to present a case on the issues he cares about.

For example, during a 2019 call, Trump he gave Erdogan gave the go-ahead to launch a military offensive in northern Syria that has allowed Ankara to seize areas and deny US-allied Syrian Kurdish armed groups uninterrupted territory across the Turkish border.

When Washington sanctioned Turkey for purchasing Russian-made S-400 air defense systems, Trump and he chosen the lightest package of sanctions presented to him.

Despite the ups and downs, like Trump imposing sanctions imposed on Turkish ministers for the 2018 jailing of American pastor Andrew Brunson, people close to Erdogan believe both leaders have similar mindsets and could work together for broader goals.

They say Berat Albayrak, Erdogan’s son-in-law and former finance minister, for example, had a good relationship with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

However, several politicians from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and some top bureaucrats in relevant Turkish ministries say this is a misleading picture of Turkey’s relationship with Washington under the Trump administration.

“I always say that Trump and Erdogan had a good dialogue. What concrete things have we achieved with this?” said a top AKP politician.

Others say that Turkish ministries and institutions have failed to work properly with their American counterparts because of the constant mutiny of officials on the American side.

They also complain that Trump would often make promises and deals that would result in no progress or follow through. Aside from big promises and attention-seeking statements, little or nothing has come together during Trump’s first term, they say.

For example, despite US President Joe Biden’s apparent dislike of Erdogan, both leaders have authorized their foreign and defense ministries, as well as intelligence agencies, to collaborate and reach a middle ground on issues such as the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO.

Earlier this year, Washington agreed to a deal with Ankara for a $16 billion F-16 fighter jet, according to Erdogan. approved Sweden’s accession to NATO.

Bilateral trust has gradually grown to the point where both sides are discussing a possible sale of next-generation F-35 warplanes to Turkey, and the Biden administration has been sending messages to Iran through Turkish interlocutors in Ankara.

Watching and waiting

There is an expectation among some Turkish officials that this dynamic could be maintained through a Harris administration.

Harris herself does not have many foreign policy red lines, and she is expected to use the bureaucracy and foreign policy gurus within the Democratic establishment to craft institutional policy.

Ankara’s previous attempts to engage with Trump officials before the 2016 election were instructive

For example, her current national security adviser, Philip Gordon, could be considered a Turkey expert because he has a lot of experience working in the country and with its government. This could mean a stable and negotiated relationship rather than the ups and downs of the Trump administration.

The second reason Ankara has kept a studious silence is that the election was incredibly close. For weeks, the polls have been very tight and there is no indication that one candidate has more of a chance of winning.

Ankara’s previous attempts to engage with Trump officials before the 2016 election were also instructive.

Turkey’s lobbying of then-Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn backfired massively when investigations into his work treated Turkey’s efforts on a par with Russian influence campaigns.

This time, the Turkish government is not looking for any adventure and is maintaining a by-the-book approach to the elections.