Some final thoughts on the election

A recent study examining party affiliation among adults in the United States found that the majority of the electorate, 43 percent, define themselves as independent, meaning they are not committed to any political party.

According to the same report, Republicans and Democrats can each claim the solid loyalty of just 27 percent of voters.

The disengaged crowd likes to explain that they evaluate each election based on the policies presented by the various candidates.

They boast that they cannot be taken for granted and sometimes look down on those who vote based on party loyalty. An acquaintance of mine, Sean, a fellow Irishman and avowed independent voter, long retired from the NYPD, who reads the Irish Echo every week and is therefore clear about my political preferences, approached me last week to reveal his dilemma vote.

He told me he had no time for Harris and even less for Walz, and although he hadn’t voted for a Democrat since JFK in 1960, John Kelly’s scathing condemnation of Donald Trump confirmed his suspicion that the Republican nominee was a “vain “. non-identity” that should not be left near the Oval Office.

Sean claimed he was consulting me for advice: “Should I hold my nose and give Harris a stroke or stay away on November 5th?” He is a proud conservative who has supported Republican Party candidates in every election for sixty years.

His decision to change on this occasion was troubling for him and he wanted to explain his reasoning to me while stating that it would be a one-time event as he maintains his antipathy towards Democrats, in his words, with all the works them and the pumps.

The high level of declared independents is misleading. Most of these voters – like Sean – lean heavily towards one of the two main parties, confirming that despite low reported political affiliation, the country is almost evenly divided. We estimate that the number of true independents is around 12% of the electorate.

Both parties are spending massive amounts of money, in the hundreds of millions, to sway undecided voters. Research shows that most people are driven by fear and emotion rather than rational argument in the heat of political campaigns. In practice, this means that voters are influenced by messages that emphasize the negative rather than those that highlight the positive.

Scientists confirm that negative images and statements about candidates and policies cause increased activity in the prefrontal cortex of the brain, the part most associated with decision-making. Politics is a bare-knuckle fight, and our brains reflect that. Negative political advertising work and brain scans confirm its crucial importance in swaying uncertain voters.

As Donald Trump told Bob Woodward: real power is fear. From the early stages of the campaign, Donald Trump made revenge a major theme in his plans.

He makes no secret of his intention to expand the powers of the presidency to punish his political opponents. He spoke openly about not respecting the Constitution. He believes, without any credible evidence, that President Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland are secretly cooperating to boost the efforts of various lawyers and judges to convict and imprison him.

Lately, he has strangely claimed that his political opponents, exemplified by Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff, are “parasites” and “the enemy within.”

According to his rhetoric, these Democrats are far more hostile to the well-being of the United States than the America-hating leaders in Moscow and Beijing.

If elected, he plans to replace thousands of top civil servants to get out of the “deep state”, a derogatory term for the work of various bureaucrats in the many government departments.

Their replacements will be hired as toads who follow instructions dictated by the White House. General John Kelly and dozens of other leaders who served during Trump’s first term as president have warned that he is an outspoken fascist with little knowledge of history who shamelessly praised aspects of Hitler’s leadership.

This was a man responsible for the murder of over six million Jews and hundreds of thousands of American servicemen and women, not to mention the destruction of an entire continent.

Trump proposes a new tariff regime for goods coming into the United States. Almost all leading economists predict that this will lead to high inflation that will directly cost each family about $4,000 a year. He will also cut income and corporate taxes, which will largely benefit the rich and super-rich.

The Harris/Walz alternative would direct almost all tax changes to help the poor and middle class. This contrast becomes a major focus in the final days of the campaign. Republicans traditionally say they are worried about the growing national deficit, pointing out that it is immoral to pass the debt on to future generations. Their criticism on this topic is entirely correct.

It is shameful and unethical to run up large bills that our children and grandchildren have to pay with interest. Only Bill Clinton balanced the budget and reduced the deficit while the one whose tenure did the most harm by far in this area was Donald Trump.

Notably, he or his main spokespeople don’t mention the D-word in the campaign.

However, serious economists reviewing his plans agree that if his policies are implemented, they will increase the national debt again. I have not seen any study that examines the impact on the election of the double assassination attempt on Mr. Trump.

Two acquaintances of mine, both elderly, whose political allegiance I am not sure of, pointed out to me that the shot that cut off his ear was only half an inch away from killing him.

They concluded that divine providence had protected him and both agreed that he would surely benefit from a sympathy vote because of these failed attempts to assassinate him. Gaza looms over American politics.

October 7 involved a terrible terrorist act, but more than 40,000 people have since been killed by Israeli warplanes using bombs supplied by Washington.

The nightly images of starving children trying to cope haunt many Americans and will have an impact on the November 5th vote, particularly in Michigan.

These are extremely important elections for America’s future.

Gerry O’Shea blogs at wemustbetalking.com