Polls hurt our democracy, even when the polls are right

However, with freedom comes responsibility. Our flash polls may fill Americans’ hunger to know what might happen before they vote, but it is a significant contributor to the deterioration of our democracy. While we cannot outlaw it, we can take more responsibility for its effect.

The problem with surveys is not quality. On average, pollsters typically get races within a few percentage points. In general, we can trust the polls as long as we realize that a small lead is no guarantee of victory.

The problem is its effect on the quality of our political discourse and our openness to taking candidates more seriously. Take this year. A deafening pace of polling virtually silenced what we could have learned about the candidates.

It started before the primary. President Joe Biden dominated among Democrats. His predecessor, Donald Trump, dominated among Republicans. They have been historically unpopular, but their large advantages over the competition have reduced interest in primaries.

Biden and Trump refused to debate their challengers. Still, primary voters forgave them. If the polls showed the results were a foregone conclusion, why worry about the debates, even if it would have allowed voters to better gauge their readiness and engage in more political discussion in within their parties.

Democrats got a rude awakening with Biden’s poor debate performance against Trump in June. Biden’s candidacy was in trouble, but the debate’s relatively modest effect in the polls kept him in the race for weeks. When he finally withdrew, Kamala Harris immediately validated his decision, giving Democrats a wave of hope.

Would Harris be better off now if she had to win a “blitz primary” where voters could have learned more about her and her priorities? We’ll never know. Polls showing her as the favorite justified her appointment.

By September, the combination of polls and relentless attacks had marginalized potential independent and minor party candidates. The most reliably brutal effect of surveys is to marginalize minor pirates except for their “spoiler impact”.

Now, it’s all about the polls in the seven presidential swing states. The polls justify why the candidates spend almost all their time there, and why billions will be spent on the two million swing voters who will decide who wins.

The polls are still important and meaningful despite the presidential troubles | Chris Talgo

In winner-take-all elections, campaigning only matters when the results are in doubt. In the Senate election, Republicans are looking for an upset in Maryland, Democrats in Texas and Florida and independents in Nebraska. But the polls have them down, and control of the Senate will likely hinge on whether incumbent Democrats can carry Ohio and Montana.

Of 435 seats in Parliament, only about 40 could switch parties – and far fewer will. Polls again drive where resources go, depressing debate, competition and turnout everywhere.

Reliance on polls reduces meaningful discussion of issues and character. It ensures that most of us know that we are only token participants and nervous spectators in deciding control of the White House and Congress.

So what to do? Given the First Amendment, we can’t easily regulate polls any more than we can mandate a shorter campaign or limit how much billionaires can spend on influencing opinion. But we can still take more personal responsibility.

First, we can ignore polls and reward journalists who focus more on substance than horse racing with our subscriptions and clicks.

Second, we may refuse to participate in surveys, which creates greater uncertainty, making it more difficult to obtain a representative sample.

Third, we can support electoral reforms that put voters more in charge. Pollsters thrive in binary elections where voters choose only one candidate. Used in Alaska and Maine and on the ballot in four other states in November, ranked-choice voting allows minor candidates to get a fair shake and spurs creative campaigning. Combining it with all-candidate primaries and multi-member districts will open up elections.

I am generally confident in the polls this year, but eager for our collective work to reduce their influence.