John Middleton expects the Phillies’ payroll to rise, and Juan Soto isn’t their only option

It wasn’t just about LA vs. NYC, or Hollywood vs. Broadway, or even Ohtani vs. Judge. And certainly not Ice Cube vs. Fat Joe, a pregame rap performance mismatch if there ever was one.

In its center, the 120th World Series it was also about money.

Big money.

A year after the three teams with the highest payrolls (Mets, Yankees, Padres) missed the playoffs, the Dodgers and Yankees set up a Fall Classic matchup of the No. 2 and 3, coming in at $351 million and $314 million, respectively, according to Cot’s baseball contracts and calculated for luxury tax purposes.

The Phillies lived in an equally large neighborhood, even though they went home two runs away from the World Series. They won the NL East with the fifth-highest payroll in baseball: $261 million, which eliminated the second luxury tax threshold. As such, they will be hit with a tax penalty of about $13 million, bringing their total spending to a record $274 million.

That’s a big price to pay for a postseason win.

It is fair to ask, then, whether the salary will rise again next season, and if so, by how much?

With the free agent market set to open Monday and general managers meetings scheduled for next week in San Antonio, how much financial flexibility does the president of baseball operations have Dave Dombrowski do you need to change the list? Can the Phillies add another big salary player or just make adjustments on the fringes?

“Given where we are in the contract cycles and the minor league people coming in, I expect player salaries to be higher (than this year) rather than lower,” the owner. John Middleton said The Inquirer this week. “I’d be surprised if it’s the same and I’d be stunned, very stunned, if it’s lower. I don’t see it being any lower.”

The fact is, the Phillies have no choice but to maintain their salary cap. They have $220.5 million in commitments in 2025 to 11 players, including seven – Zack Wheeler, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanosand Kyle Schwarber — who will earn at least $20 million. Another nine players are in line for raises through salary arbitration.

But the Phillies also entered luxury tax territory three years in a row, raising their tax rate to 50 percent. Over the years, other team owners, including the Steinbrenner family, in a similar predicament have ducked under the threshold for a year to reset the tax penalty to 20 percent.

Instead, Middleton indicated he would consider pushing the payroll even beyond the third threshold — $281 million next year — if the opportunity to add another impact player arose. Never mind that the Phillies would be hit with a 92.5% surcharge on every dollar over $281 million and that their 2026 first-round pick would be moved back 10 spots.

“For the right player,” Middleton said, “I have a high degree of confidence that Dave and I will get over the third boundary.”

OK, press pause. There is only one true difference maker in the free agent market. But before you run to get Juan Soto’s name and No. 22 stitched on your red pinstripe jersey, be warned that the Yankees want to keep him — “I hope he’s here forever,” manager Aaron Boone told reporters this week – and they will be motivated. after a World Series disappointment. And in free agency, the Bronx Bombers usually get the players they want, though not nearly as often since Hal Steinbrenner took over for his late father.

The Yankees anticipate a cross-town challenge from Mets owner Steve Cohen, baseball’s richest man. The Giants and Blue Jays, bridesmaids in their free agent deals for Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, have money to spend. Never rule out the Dodgers.

Soto, an all-time sage, will go to the highest bidder. And by virtue of his age (he turned 26 on Oct. 25) and talent, the bidding is expected to climb to at least $40 million a year and $500 million overall, probably more.

The Phillies will do what they should as big-market contenders, just like they did last year with acclaimed free agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Presumably they will request and receive a meeting with Soto. Certainly, they will try to convince him by capitalizing on the relationships with Turner and especially by hitting coach Kevin Long.

(He long coached Soto for four seasons with the Nationals, and they grew so close that Soto invited Long to join him and agent Scott Boras in the front row at Dodger Stadium to cheer on Turner and Max Scherzer in a wild-card game in 2021. Soto wore a Nationals jersey with Turner’s name and number.)

Soto’s elite plate discipline makes him a perfect fit for a Phillies lineup full of hitters who tend to swing at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone. But let’s be real: Soto would be a perfect fit for 30 teams. Only a handful can afford it, so he and Boras will keep as many options open as possible.

“I don’t know all the teams that are chasing me, but I’m definitely open to listening,” Soto told reporters after the World Series-ending loss in Game 5 at Yankee Stadium. “I don’t have any closed doors. I’m available to all 30 teams.”

Let’s say, though, that Soto returns to New York – either the Bronx or Queens. The Phillies could use their financial strength in other ways.

More specifically: The Brewers will reportedly exercise their $10.5 million option on closer Devin Williams, which would make him the club’s highest-paid reliever since Eric Gagne in 2008. Williams can be a free agent after the season future. Milwaukee also had one of the best offseasons in baseball this year despite Williams missing four months with a back injury.

The Brewers traded ace Corbin Burnes before his final year of team control. Would he do the same to Williams, who had a 1.25 ERA and went 14-15 in saves but gave up a crushing homer to the Mets’ Pete Alonso in the postseason?

“We have to keep an open mind,” Brewers general manager Matt Arnold told reporters a few weeks ago. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so it’s something that’s necessary where we’re at. … I still think he’s the best closer in baseball and I’m happy to have him.”

Phillies’ group of high-leverage releasers will undergo changes. Matt Strahm, Jose Alvaradoand Orion Kerkering are ready to return, but Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez are free agents.

“It’s hard for me to imagine you end up bringing them both back under these circumstances,” Dombrowski said. “Because I would understand that they’re both going to be offered long-term, big-dollar contracts that they’re going to be looking for. I can’t see us spending that kind of money on two relievers.”

But the Phillies could take on Williams’ salary for a year and install him in the ninth inning, then bring back, say, Hoffman as the primary righty. Other closers who are eligible for salary arbitration and could be on the market include Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals, Camilo Doval of the Giants and Kyle Finnegan of the Nationals.

Nothing about the postseason suggests that spending more money is an inadvisable strategy.

Money alone does not bring the trophy that Middleton is like that desperate to win back. The team with the highest salary hasn’t won a World Series since 2018, when the Red Sox — led by Dombrowski, by the way — shelled out $239.5 million in payroll (and $12 million in taxes) to the championship.

But spending big on elite players can help a team get closer. In the past three seasons, 22 teams have gone over the luxury tax; 16 have made the playoffs, including the Phillies in three straight years. Their luxury tax payroll increased from $209 million in 2021 to $244 million, $255 million and $261 million, while their regular season earnings total went from 82 to 87, 90 and 95.

It is not a coincidence. And to finally get over the top, Middleton may have to take on the payroll even more if Dombrowski identifies a player who can make a difference.

“John is very accommodating and giving, but you’re also in a position where you’re still working on a payroll and trying to make things work for you and go into the future with what you have,” Dombrowski said. “But I have no indication that we’re not going to continue to be aggressive in trying to get an aggressive salary.”