America’s European allies face difficult times, whoever wins the presidential election

BERLIN (AP) — European allies of the United States are bracing for an America that is less interested in them no matter who wins the presidential election — and for old traumas and new problems if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

The election comes more than 2 1/2 years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in which Washington made the largest contribution to Kiev’s defense. There are questions about whether that will continue under Trump and how committed he would be to NATO allies in general.

A victory by Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to bring a continuation of the current policy, although with Republican opposition and growing war weariness among the American public, there are concerns in Europe that support would decline.

Trump’s appetite to impose tariffs on US partners is also causing concern in a Europe already struggling with sluggish economic growth. But it’s not just the possibility of a second Trump presidency that has the continent worried about tougher times ahead.

European officials believe U.S. priorities lie elsewhere, regardless of who wins. The Middle East is high on President Joe Biden’s list right now, but the long-term priority is China.

“The centrality of Europe in US foreign policy is different than it was in Biden’s formative years,” said Rachel Tausendfreund, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “And in that way, it’s true that Biden is the last transatlantic president.”

The US will continue to pivot to Asia, she said. “This means that Europe must step up. Europe must become a more capable partner and also become more capable of managing its own security zone.”

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius noted as he signed a new defense pact with NATO ally Britain that the US would focus more on the Indo-Pacific region, “so it’s just a matter of, will them a lot less in Europe because of it or just a little less.”

Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, said that “above all, Europe is looking for predictability from Washington,” and that is insufficient in a turbulent world where any administration will face other demands in his attention. “But the potential for disruption is clearly greater under a potential Trump administration.”

“There is an assumption of essential continuity” under Harris that is probably well-founded, he said, with many people who shaped policy under Biden likely to stay. “It is very much the known world, even if the strategic environment produces its own uncertainties.”

While both the US and Europe have increasingly focused on competing with Asia, the ongoing war in Europe means that “the potential costs of a shift from European security to the American side are much higher today than it would have been a few years ago. Lesser said. Europe’s ability to deal with this depends on how quickly it happens, he said.

Europe’s lagging defense spending has irked US administrations of both parties for years, although NATO members including Germany raised their game after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO estimates 23 of its 32 allies will meet their target of spend 2 percent or more of gross domestic product on defense this year, compared to just three a decade ago.

During his 2017-2021 term, Trump threatened to abandon “delinquent” countries if they didn’t pay their “bills.” On the campaign trail this time, he suggested that Russia could do whatever it wanted with them.

His fanfare undermined confidence and worried the countries closest to an increasingly unpredictable Russia, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an existential challenge in a way that the United States ultimately may not, even with some signs of war fatigue emerging in Europe itself.

If Trump wins, “there is every indication that he has no interest in continuing to support Ukraine in this war” and will quickly push for some sort of ceasefire or peace deal that Kiev may not like and for which Europe may not be ready, Tausendfreund said. “And there is also no way that Europe could fill the remaining military gap if the US withdrew support.”

“Even with a Harris administration there’s a growing and changing debate — frankly, on both sides of the Atlantic — about what’s next in the war in Ukraine, what the end game is,” Lesser said.

Biden emphasized the need to stay the course in Ukraine during a brief recent visit to Berlin, when he spoke with German, French and British leaders.

“We can’t give up. We have to sustain our support,” Biden said. “From my point of view, we must continue until Ukraine wins a just and lasting peace.”

The times he lived through taught him that “we should never underestimate the power of democracy, never underestimate the value of alliances,” Biden, 81, added.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who awarded Germany’s highest honor to Biden for his service in transatlantic relations, hopes Biden’s countrymen are listening.

“In the coming months, I hope Europeans will remember: America is indispensable to us,” he said. “And I also hope Americans remember: Your allies are indispensable to you. We are more than ‘other countries’ in the world – we are partners, we are friends.”

Whoever wins the White House, the coming years could be hurt.

“Whatever the outcome is next week, half the country is going to walk away angry,” Lesser said, noting there was “every prospect” of divided government in Washington. “Europe will face a very chaotic and sometimes dysfunctional America.”